National Championship Odds: Michigan Vaults Into Contention Following Week 10

Nov 06, 2018 8:35 PM EST
  • Sportsbooks have updated their odds to win the College Football Playoff following Week 10.
  • Alabama and Michigan are among the week's biggest risers, while LSU and and Notre Dame are among the fallers.

Week 10 has come and gone, and with each passing week the list of teams with a shot at the national championship diminishes.

Westgate is now listing odds for just 12 teams, only seven of which are inside 100-1.

Here’s where each team stands with three regular-season games remaining.

Risers

Alabama: -250 to -300 (71.43% to 75% implied probability)

Week 10 @ LSU: Won 29-0

Another weekend, another dominant Alabama victory, and another odds increase for the Tide. They’re now -300 favorites, giving them a ridiculous 75% implied probability.

Michigan: +1200 to +900 (7.69% to 10% implied probability)

Week 10 vs. Penn State: Won 42-7

Michigan made a statement with its win over Penn State on Saturday. The Wolverines are now the clear favorites to come out of the Big Ten, and are even listed as 3.5-point favorites against Ohio State in Westgate’s lookahead lines.

Their +900 odds also mark the first time this year they’ve been listed higher than their preseason odds (+1000).

Fallers

Notre Dame: +600 to +1000 (14.29% to 9.09% implied probability)

Week 10 @ Northwestern: Won 31-21

Notre Dame’s undefeated season continued Saturday, but its less-than-impressive win over Northwestern has its championship odds significantly lower than where they were last week.

Also hurting the Irish was West Virginia’s win over Texas, making it increasingly likely that a one-loss team will emerge from the Big 12 to contend for a playoff spot.

LSU: +4000 to +200000 (2.44% to 0.05% implied probability)

Week 10 vs. Alabama: Lost 29-0

No surprise here. Entering Saturday’s game with one loss already, LSU’s season was going to end with a loss to Bama. At 200-1, the Tigers are now the lowest team still on the board at Westgate.

Washington State: +5000 to +10000 (1.96% to 0.99% implied probability)

Week 10 vs. Cal: Won 19-13

Even though they have only one loss, the Cougars still wouldn’t be guaranteed a playoff spot if they were to win out.

That makes the strength of their wins all the more important down the stretch, and a six-point victory over Cal at home isn’t the most convincing.

Central Florida: +6000 to +100000 (1.64% to 0.10% implied probability)

Week 10 vs. Temple: Won 52-40

UCF may have won on Thursday night, but with every one-loss contender — other than LSU — also getting Week 10 victories, the Knights are almost certainly going to find themselves on the outside looking in for the second straight season.

Credit:

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michigan’s defense celebrates during its 42-7 win over Penn State.

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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