NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:30 PM  Rice RICE 303  Charlotte CHA 304 | -6.5 +6.5 | -3 +3 | -3-102 +2.5-102 | |||||
11:30 PM  Tulsa TLSA 305  OK State OKST 306 | +14.5 -14.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-110 -11.5-110 | |||||
12:00 AM  Iowa IOWA 307  Rutgers RUT 308 | -1.5 +1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-115 +2.5+100 | |||||
4:00 PM  North Texas UNT 309  Army ARMY 310 | +2.5 -2.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-105 +2.5-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  Texas Tech TTU 349  Utah UTAH 350 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3 -3 | +3-108 -3-110 | |||||
4:00 PM  SMU SMU 311  TCU TCU 312 | +4 -4 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-102 -7-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  UNLV UNLV 319  Miami (OH) M-OH 320 | -4.5 +4.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  Wofford WOF  VA Tech VT | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  SC State SCS  S. Florida USF | N/A N/A | |||||||
4:00 PM  Maryland UMD 339  Wisconsin WIS 340 | +7.5 -7.5 | +10 -10 | +10-105 -10.5-105 | |||||
4:00 PM  Arkansas ARK 365  Memphis MEM 366 | -4.5 +4.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | -7.5+100 +7.5-109 | |||||
+25.5 -25.5 | +26.5 -26.5 | +27.5-108 -26.5-105 | ||||||
4:00 PM  Syracuse SYR 327  Clemson CLEM 328 | +16.5 -16.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-110 -17.5-105 | |||||
4:45 PM  UAB UAB 343  Tennessee TENN 344 | +41.5 -41.5 | +39.5 -39.5 | +39.5-108 -39.5-110 | |||||
5:00 PM  Wagner WAG  C. Michigan CMU | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:00 PM  Oregon St ORST 351  Oregon ORE 352 | +26.5 -26.5 | +35.5 -35.5 | +35-110 -35.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM  Michigan MICH 367  Nebraska NEB 368 | -3.5 +3.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +3-112 | |||||
7:30 PM  UNC UNC 317  UCF UCF 318 | +3.5 -3.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM  Troy TROY 337  Buffalo BUFF 338 | +2.5 -2.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-106 -6-110 | |||||
7:30 PM  Toledo TOL 335  W. Michigan WMU 336 | -11.5 +11.5 | -14 +14 | -14-110 +13.5-102 | |||||
7:30 PM  Gardner-Webb GWEB  Ohio OHIO | N/A N/A | |||||||
7:30 PM  Tulane TULN 355  Ole Miss MISS 356 | +13.5 -13.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +11.5-108 -11.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM  Ball State BALL 363  UConn UCONN 364 | +18.5 -18.5 | +21 -21 | +21-105 -21.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM  Auburn AUB 353  Oklahoma OU 354 | +3.5 -3.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -7.5+104 | |||||
7:30 PM  Purdue PUR 369  Notre Dame ND 370 | +30.5 -30.5 | +24.5 -24.5 | +24.5-105 -24.5-108 | |||||
+44.5 -44.5 | +44.5 -44.5 | +45-110 -45-110 | ||||||
7:30 PM  Louisiana UL 313  E. Michigan EMU 314 | -6.5 +6.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -1.5-112 +2.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM  JMU JMU 379  Liberty LIB 380 | -6.5 +6.5 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9.5-110 +9.5-105 | |||||
8:00 PM  NC State NCST 331  Duke DUKE 332 | +3 -3 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3+100 -3.5-102 | |||||
+21.5 -21.5 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21-105 -21.5-105 | ||||||
8:30 PM  Temple TEM 315  GA Tech GT 316 | +22.5 -22.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +24-109 -23.5-105 | |||||
9:00 PM  Idaho IDHO  San Jose St SJSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  Delaware DEL 383  FIU FIU 384 | +2.5 -2.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-110 -6-108 | |||||
10:00 PM  Duquesne DUQ  Akron AKR | N/A N/A | |||||||
10:00 PM  West Virginia WVU 357  Kansas KU 358 | +11.5 -11.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-105 -13.5-110 | |||||
10:00 PM  Arkansas St ARST 381  Kennesaw St KENN 382 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6-110 +6.5-113 | |||||
11:00 PM  Boise State BOISE 387  Air Force AFA 388 | -8.5 +8.5 | -10 +10 | -10.5-105 +10-105 | |||||
11:00 PM  Marshall MRSH 389  Middle Tenn MTSU 390 | -4.5 +4.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-105 | |||||
11:00 PM  S. Carolina SC 373  Missouri MIZ 374 | +3.5 -3.5 | +11.5 -11.5 | +12-110 -11.5-105 | |||||
11:00 PM  TN-Martin TNM  Missouri St MOST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Maine ME  GA Southern GASO | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Murray State MUR  Jax State JVST | N/A N/A | |||||||
11:00 PM  Nevada NEV 385  W. Kentucky WKU 386 | +12.5 -12.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-105 -11.5-105 | |||||
11:00 PM  Coastal Car CC 341  S. Alabama USA 342 | +14 -14 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14.5-110 -14.5-105 | |||||
11:30 PM  Southern Miss USM 391  LA Tech LT 392 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3 -3 | +3+100 -3.5-102 | |||||
11:30 PM  Florida FLA 323  Miami (FL) MIA 324 | +4 -4 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 -7.5-106 | |||||
11:30 PM  BYU BYU 321  E. Carolina ECU 322 | -9.5 +9.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5-110 +6.5-105 | |||||
11:30 PM  Arizona St ASU 359  Baylor BAY 360 | +4.5 -4.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  Illinois ILL 329  Indiana IU 330 | +3 -3 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5-110 -4.5-115 | |||||
11:30 PM  Stanford STAN 371  Virginia UVA 372 | +14.5 -14.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +15.5-105 -16.5-105 | |||||
11:30 PM  Washington WASH 393  Washington St WSU 394 | -12.5 +12.5 | -19.5 +19.5 | -20.5-105 +20-110 | |||||
11:30 PM  Georgia State GAST 395  Vanderbilt VAN 396 | +25.5 -25.5 | +26.5 -26.5 | +26.5-102 -27-110 | |||||
11:45 PM  SE Louisiana SEL  LSU LSU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Nicholls St NIC  Texas St TXST | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  McNeese St MCN  Utah State USU | N/A N/A | |||||||
12:00 AM  Sam Houston SHSU 397  Texas TEX 398 | +40.5 -40.5 | +39.5 -39.5 | +39.5-105 -39.5-110 | |||||
1:00 AM  LA-Monroe ULM 399  UTEP UTEP 400 | +1.5 -1.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6-110 -5.5-110 | |||||
1:30 AM  UTSA UTSA 345  Colorado St CSU 346 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5-110 +4.5-108 | |||||
2:15 AM  Wyoming WYO 347  Colorado COLO 348 | +17.5 -17.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-112 -13.5-105 | |||||
-11.5 +11.5 | -12.5 +12.5 | -12-110 +12.5-108 | ||||||
3:00 AM  Michigan St MSU 361  USC USC 362 | +14.5 -14.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5-105 -18.5-105 | |||||
4:00 AM  Fresno State FRES 377  Hawaii HAW 378 | -3.5 +3.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-106 |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.
