NCAAF Projections

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Odds Settings
SCHED.
PRO
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
GRADE
BEST ODDS
Your free PRO game of the day.
W. Kentucky
WKU
201
Old Dominion
ODU
202
+1
-1
A+
F
+5-113
-4-110
Final - OT
Your free PRO game of the day.
0
0
A+
F
+4.5-114
+13.5+200
Final
-2.5-112
+2.5+100
Final
Final
Final - OT
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
-6.5-110
+6.5-102
Final
+2.5-105
-2.5-110
Final
Final
Final
Final
N/A
N/A
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
-13.5-110
+13.5-105
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final - OT
Final
Final
SCHEDULED OPEN PRO LINE
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
CONS. GRADE EDGE BEST ODDS BET % MONEY %
+4
-4
+1
-1
+4
-4
A+
F
+10.5%
-15.3%
+5-113
-4-110
Right Arrow40%Right Arrow60%
9%
91%
+4.5
-4.5
0
0
+4
-4
A+
F
+10.8%
-15.6%
+4.5-114
+13.5+200
Right Arrow61%Right Arrow39%
74%
26%
-2.5
+2.5
-2.5
+2.5
-2.5-112
+2.5+100
Right Arrow54%Right Arrow46%
-2.5
+2.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5-110
+2-105
Right Arrow74%Right Arrow26%
-2.5
+2.5
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5-105
+3+100
Right Arrow77%Right Arrow23%
+6.5
-6.5
+6
-6
+6.5-106
-6-108
Right Arrow58%Right Arrow42%
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5-102
+3+102
Right Arrow77%Right Arrow23%
-5.5
+5.5
-6.5
+6.5
-6.5-110
+6.5-105
Right Arrow54%Right Arrow46%
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5-109
-3.5+100
Right Arrow54%Right Arrow46%
-12
+12
-7
+7
-7.5+100
+7-105
Right Arrow69%Right Arrow31%
+3
-3
+3
-3
+3-105
-3-110
Right Arrow33%Right Arrow67%
+4.5
-4.5
+6
-6
+7-115
-6-108
Right Arrow55%Right Arrow45%
-2.5
+2.5
-2.5
+2.5
-2.5-110
+2.5-102
Right Arrow54%Right Arrow46%
-7
+7
-6.5
+6.5
-6.5-110
+6.5-102
Right Arrow30%Right Arrow70%
-1.5
+1.5
+2.5
-2.5
+2.5-105
-2.5-110
Right Arrow40%Right Arrow60%
+1.5
-1.5
+1.5
-1.5
+2.5-110
+23.5+240
Right Arrow28%Right Arrow72%
-17
+17
-17.5
+17.5
-17.5-110
+17.5-108
Right Arrow50%Right Arrow50%
-6.5
+6.5
-7
+7
-7-108
+6.5-102
Right Arrow43%Right Arrow57%
N/A
N/A
+3.5
-3.5
+2
-2
+2+100
-1.5-110
Right Arrow59%Right Arrow41%
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5-108
+3.5-110
Right Arrow42%Right Arrow58%
-13
+13
-8
+8
-7.5-105
+8-110
Right Arrow58%Right Arrow42%
-13
+13
-13
+13
-12.5-110
+13-110
Right Arrow61%Right Arrow39%
+4.5
-4.5
+4.5
-4.5
+5.5-110
-4.5-110
Right Arrow32%Right Arrow68%
-4.5
+4.5
-4.5
+4.5
-4-112
+4.5-105
Right Arrow62%Right Arrow38%
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5
+4-110
-3.5-115
Right Arrow34%Right Arrow66%
-10.5
+10.5
-13.5
+13.5
-13.5-110
+13.5-105
Right Arrow68%Right Arrow32%
-2.5
+2.5
-2.5
+2.5
-2.5-115
+3-109
Right Arrow73%Right Arrow27%
+2.5
-2.5
+3
-3
+2.5+100
-3+100
Right Arrow74%Right Arrow26%
-2.5
+2.5
-2.5
+2.5
-1.5-115
+2.5-105
Right Arrow74%Right Arrow26%
-4.5
+4.5
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5+100
+3.5-110
Right Arrow46%Right Arrow54%
+6
-6
+5.5
-5.5
+5.5-110
-5-108
Right Arrow65%Right Arrow35%
+10.5
-10.5
+10.5
-10.5
+10.5-109
-10.5-105
Right Arrow41%Right Arrow59%
+5.5
-5.5
+5.5
-5.5
+6-112
-5.5-110
Right Arrow65%Right Arrow35%
-4.5
+4.5
-4.5
+4.5
-4.5-105
+5-113
Right Arrow54%Right Arrow46%
-23.5
+23.5
-23.5
+23.5
-23.5-109
+23.5-105
Right Arrow76%Right Arrow24%
+5
-5
+5
-5
+5-105
-4.5-110
Right Arrow21%Right Arrow79%
+9
-9
+9.5
-9.5
+9.5+100
-9-110
Right Arrow37%Right Arrow63%
+18
-18
+18.5
-18.5
+19-110
-42.5+540
Right Arrow23%Right Arrow77%
+5.5
-5.5
+4.5
-4.5
+38.5-345
-4.5-105
Right Arrow56%Right Arrow44%
+1.5
-1.5
+2.5
-2.5
+2.5-110
-2-110
Right Arrow65%Right Arrow35%
-4
+4
-3.5
+3.5
-3-110
+3.5-110
Right Arrow41%Right Arrow59%
+4.5
-4.5
+5.5
-5.5
+5.5-108
-5-110
Right Arrow55%Right Arrow45%

A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.

How NCAAF Projections Work

There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.

At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.

We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.

A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.

The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.

Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.

The Action Network's NCAAF Projections

Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.

The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.

Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.

If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.

Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.

Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.

Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.

You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.

It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.

Frequently Asked Questions
What are NCAAF Projections?
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What NCAAF projections do The Action Network experts provide?
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