NCAAF Projections
| SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-6.5 +6.5 | -4.7 +4.7 | -7 +7 | F B- | -10% 3.7% | -7.5+111 +7-105 | 46%54% | 36% 64% | |
12:00 AM  Sam Houston SHSU 415  Jax State JVST 416 | +14 -14 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-105 +20.5+100 | 33%68% | ||||
12:30 AM  Iowa IOWA 353  Northwestern NW 354 | +2.5 -2.5 | -3 +3 | -3.5+115 +3.5-115 | 62%38% | ||||
12:30 AM  Miami (FL) MIA 419  Notre Dame ND 420 | +6.5 -6.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7-105 -7.5+111 | 78%22% | ||||
12:30 AM  Air Force AFA 417  Army ARMY 418 | +6 -6 | +4 -4 | +4.5-108 -3.5-105 | 28%72% | ||||
12:30 AM  Colorado COLO 365  Arizona St ASU 366 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5+115 | 31%69% | ||||
12:30 AM  Louisville LOU 349  GA Tech GT 350 | -13.5 +13.5 | -14.5 +14.5 | +20.5-102 +14.5-110 | 50%50% | ||||
12:30 AM  Michigan St MSU 341  Michigan MICH 342 | +13.5 -13.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +14-105 +20.5-102 | 53%47% | ||||
12:30 AM  Georgia UGA 379  Ole Miss MISS 380 | -4.5 +4.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | +18.5-102 +3.5-105 | 52%48% | ||||
12:45 AM  Oklahoma OU 381  Florida FLA 382 | +4 -4 | +4 -4 | +5.5-105 +20.5-102 | 50%50% | ||||
1:00 AM  Liberty LIB 409  N. Mexico St NMSU 410 | -12.5 +12.5 | -14.5 +14.5 | +20.5-102 +17.5-115 | 70%30% | ||||
-2.5 +2.5 | +1 -1 | +0.5+100 +2.5-110 | 64%36% | |||||
2:30 AM  Hawaii HAW 367  UTEP UTEP 368 | -11.5 +11.5 | -7 +7 | +16.5+100 +8.5-110 | 67%33% | ||||
+15.5 -15.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-106 +20.5-102 | 58%42% | |||||
3:30 AM  Wyoming WYO 425  UNLV UNLV 426 | +8.5 -8.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +4.5-105 +20.5-102 | 48%52% | ||||
3:30 AM  Texas St TXST 423  Oregon St ORST 424 | +8.5 -8.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6.5-115 +20.5-102 | 32%68% | ||||
4TH 1:00  Delaware DEL 371  Kennesaw St KENN 372 | -3 +3 | -1.5 -1.5 | -1.5+106 +1.5-105 | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | +2.5+102 -1.5-115 | 62%38% | |||||
4TH 4:33  Alabama BAMA 397  LSU LSU 398 | +4 -4 | +6.5 +11.5 | +5.5+106 -5.5-106 | 76%24% | ||||
4TH 9:16  Oregon ORE 385  Ohio State OSU 386 | +6 -6 | -23.5 -7.5 | +8.5-110 +20.5-102 | 46%54% | ||||
4TH 0:59  Charlotte CHA 399  UAB UAB 400 | +10 -10 | +16.5 -16.5 | +8.5-110 +20.5-102 | 65%35% | ||||
+8.5 -8.5 | +7 -7 | +10.5-110 +20.5-102 | 74%26% | |||||
4TH 7:43  Cincinnati CIN 357  Houston HOU 358 | +9.5 -9.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +10-105 +20.5-102 | 52%48% | ||||
4TH 1:14  Temple TEM 403  Navy NAVY 404 | +7.5 -7.5 | +8 -2.5 | +8.5-113 +17.5+100 | 76%24% | ||||
+1.5 -1.5 | -2.5 -7.5 | -2.5+102 +2.5-102 | 65%35% | |||||
4TH 5:44  Merrimack MC  Wake Forest WF | +49.5 -49.5 | +46.5 -70.5 | +45-108 +16.5+100 | 47%53% | ||||
4TH 2:03  UCF UCF 327  Kansas KU 328 | +1.5 -1.5 | -1.5 -6 | +6.5-106 -2.5-125 | 61%39% | ||||
4TH 11:15  LA Tech LT 407  Troy TROY 408 | -6.5 +6.5 | -7 +7 | -7.5+115 +6.5-101 | 63%37% | ||||
4TH 10:17  N. Illinois NIU 373  San Jose St SJSU 374 | +11.5 -11.5 | +16.5 -16.5 | +15.5-115 +20.5-102 | 34%66% | ||||
3RD 0:07  Rice RICE 393  North Texas UNT 394 | +16.5 -16.5 | +14.5 -17.5 | +16.5-105 +20.5-102 | 33%67% | ||||
4TH 12:17  Missouri St MOST 405  FIU FIU 406 | +4.5 -4.5 | +11 -11 | +5.5-106 -5.5+106 | 33%67% | ||||
4TH 13:07  Rutgers RUT 359  Wisconsin WIS 360 | +15.5 -15.5 | +18.5 -18.5 | +18.5-105 +16.5+100 | 58%42% | ||||
+2.5 -2.5 | +3 +5.5 | +2.5+111 -3-102 | 38%62% | |||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +6.5 -7.5 | +7.5-110 +20.5-102 | 68%32% | |||||
-19.5 +19.5 | -16.5 +21.5 | +20.5-102 +17.5-110 | 70%30% | |||||
1ST 3:41  Kentucky UK 411  Tennessee TENN 412 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6.5 -5.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5+106 | 68%32% | ||||
-13.5 +13.5 | -12.5 +12.5 | -12.5+102 +12.5-102 | 59%41% | |||||
Final - OT  Buffalo BUFF 301  Miami (OH) M-OH 302 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5+111 -7-105 | 54%46% | ||||
Final - OT  Ball State BALL 307  UMass MASS 308 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3.5-115 -2.5-102 | 39%61% | ||||
-27.5 +27.5 | -25.5 +25.5 | +6.5+100 +26-108 | 52%48% | |||||
+1.5 -1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | +1.5-120 +2.5+106 | 44%56% | |||||
-15.5 +15.5 | -13.5 +13.5 | +20.5-102 +16.5-110 | 64%36% | |||||
+7.5 -7.5 | +6 -6 | +5.5+106 -5.5-106 | 52%48% | |||||
-1.5 +1.5 | +1.5 -1.5 | +1.5-102 +0.5-112 | 62%38% | |||||
-6 +6 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5+102 +4.5-102 | 46%54% | |||||
-12.5 +12.5 | -10.5 +10.5 | +16.5+100 +17.5-125 | 64%36% | |||||
N/A N/A | ||||||||
-3 +3 | -3 +3 | -3-102 +6.5-110 | 41%59% | |||||
-5.5 +5.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | +3.5-125 +23.5+100 | 60%40% | |||||
-8.5 +8.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | +20.5-102 +6.5-115 | 56%44% | |||||
-9.5 +9.5 | -7.5 +7.5 | +20.5-102 +8-110 | 64%36% | |||||
Final  BYU BYU 369  Utah UTAH 370 | +3 -3 | +4 -4 | +4.5-106 -4.5+106 | 59%41% | ||||
-3.5 +3.5 | -1.5 +1.5 | -0.5-104 +2.5-110 | 69%31% | |||||
+9.5 -9.5 | +10 -10 | +9.5-102 +20.5-102 | 61%39% | |||||
-6.5 +6.5 | -3.5 +3.5 | +20.5-102 +4.5-110 | 58%42% | |||||
-5.5 +5.5 | -4.5 +4.5 | -4.5+102 +5.5-110 | 61%39% | |||||
+6.5 -6.5 | +5.5 -5.5 | +5.5-110 +20.5-102 | 46%54% | |||||
+13.5 -13.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-105 +20.5-102 | 47%53% | |||||
-5.5 +5.5 | -7 +7 | -7.5+111 +7.5-111 | 54%46% | |||||
+7 -7 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-102 +20.5-102 | 51%49% | |||||
+3.5 -3.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5+102 -6.5-102 | 59%41% | |||||
+5.5 -5.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5+100 +20.5-102 | 53%47% | |||||
+14.5 -14.5 | +14.5 -14.5 | +15.5-110 +20.5-102 | 68%32% |
NCAAF Projections for 2026-27: Spread, Moneyline & Over/Under Insights
Welcome to your one-stop source for the latest NCAAF projections for the 2026-27 college football season. Our expert projections cover spreads, moneylines, and totals, blended with advanced modeling and betting market signals to help you find edges and value before kickoff.
What Are NCAAF Projections?
“NCAAF projections” refer to forecasted odds (spreads, moneylines, over/unders) for every college football matchup — built by synthesizing statistical models, expert handicapping, and live betting market data. These projections estimate what sportsbooks “should” be offering, which then allows bettors to detect value when public or consensus lines deviate.
How to Use This NCAAF Projections Tool
Here's a quick guide to digesting the data from our NCAAF projections tool:
| Column | What it means | Example: Penn State at Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Open | The spread when sportsbooks first posted the game, before betting moved it. | The game opened at Ohio State –6.5. |
| Pro Line (Subscription Feature) | Our model's odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | The model makes Ohio State –5.5, meaning it thinks they should be favored by 5.5 points. |
| Cons. | The consensus line — the current market spread averaged across sportsbooks. | Books now have Ohio State –7, so the line has moved a half point since open. |
| Grade | A letter grade (A–F) rating how strong the gap is between our line and the market's. | Model says –5.5, market says –7. That 1.5-point gap crossing a key number earns a B. |
| Edge | The same gap shown as a percentage. Higher = more potential value. | Penn State +7 shows a +4.2% edge — above the +3.5% threshold worth considering. |
| Best Odds | The single best price on each side across all sportsbooks we track. | One book has Penn State +7.5 (–108) — a better number than the consensus +7. |
| Bet % | The share of total tickets (individual bets) on each side. | 75% of all bets are on Ohio State — the public likes the favorite. |
| Money % | The share of total dollars wagered on each side. | 60% of the money is on Penn State — fewer, larger bets suggest sharper action on the underdog. |
How We Build Projections for 2026-27
To generate our NCAAF projections this season, we combine:
- Power ratings and advanced metrics: Reviewing offense, defense, special teams, tempo, efficiency, recruiting impact, roster turnover from the previous season.
- Team news and injuries: Especially at key positions like quarterback. A QB injury or change in coaching staff triggers re-evaluation.
- Home-field advantage and rest/back-to-back weeks: Travel, bye weeks, and short weeks matter.
- Historical performance and trend analysis: How teams performed in similar matchups, under similar conditions.
- Live betting market data: consensus lines, sportsbooks’ odds, public betting percentages. Our models aim to spot “edges” when our projections differ meaningfully from current market lines.
What You’ll See in Our NCAAF Projections
For each game, we provide:
- Spread projection: Predicted margin between the two teams (how many points one is favored by).
- Moneyline projection: Odds for each team to win outright.
- Over/Under (Total): Predicted combined points scored by both teams.
- Edge: The difference (as a percentage) between our projection and the consensus/sportsbook line — this helps identify betting value.
- Grade: A letter grade (A-F) reflecting the strength of that edge; helps you quickly see which games to focus on.
How to Use Projections in Betting
- Spot the edge: Compare our 2025-26 projections vs current sportsbook lines. An edge of +3.5% or higher often starts to look compelling.
- Respect key numbers: A spread of 6.5 vs. 7, or a total of 49.5 vs. 50.5, can matter significantly because of scoring patterns in football.
- Monitor news up to game day: Last-minute injuries or weather shifts can swing spreads or totals and affect value.
- Diversify bets: Don’t just pick spreads — sometimes moneylines or overs/unders offer better return, depending on matchups.
- Use power ratings: Our projections derive from power ratings that update weekly, reflecting latest performance, rest, injuries, momentum. Use these to compare teams even before lines drop.
Example: Sample Projections
Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also vital for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.
Projections vs. Public Sentiment
Sometimes what our projections say diverges from what the public is betting. These misalignments can signal value:
- When public heavily backs the favorite, but our model’s projected spread is smaller.
- When underdogs get little attention but our model suggests they win outright with reasonable probability.
- When totals are inflated by marquee names or high-profile games, but underlying defense/offense metrics suggest lower scoring.
Stay Current: Weekly Updates & Trends
- Projections are refreshed weekly, especially when new stats, injuries, or reports come in.
- We track which teams are trending up or down — momentum matters.
- Bet monitoring: watch how sharp bettors are leaning, and where public money is going. These can influence line movement, sometimes creating last-minute value.
If you're serious about getting an edge in college football betting, these NCAAF projections are essential. They don't predict upsets or guarantee wins — but they give you a probabilistic foundation to make smarter bets. Use them to find mismatches, exploit line inefficiencies, and avoid getting caught up in hype.
Updated for the 2026-27 season, our projections reflect the realities of roster shifts, scoring trends, and a tighter market. Bookmark this page, check it weekly, and let the numbers guide you.
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