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NCAAF Projections

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Odds Settings
SCHED.
PRO
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
GRADE
BEST ODDS
+2.5-105
-2.5-110
11:00 PM
Fri 10/07, 11:00 PM
Fri 10/07, 11:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 2:30 AM
Sat 10/08, 2:30 AM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 6:00 PM
+10.5-106
-11.5+100
Sat 10/08, 6:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 6:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
-4.5-104
+4.5-110
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
-24.5-107
+24.5-107
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 8:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 8:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 8:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 8:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 8:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 10:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
-11.5-107
+11.5-107
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Sun 10/09, 12:00 AM
Sun 10/09, 12:00 AM
Sun 10/09, 12:00 AM
Sun 10/09, 1:00 AM
Sun 10/09, 1:45 AM
Sun 10/09, 2:30 AM
Sun 10/09, 3:00 AM
SCHEDULED OPEN PRO LINE
Projections
Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
CONS. GRADE EDGE BEST ODDS BET % MONEY %
+3.5
-3.5
+3
-3
+2.5-105
-2.5-110
Right Arrow41%Right Arrow59%
Fri 10/07, 11:00 PM
Nebraska
NEB
303
Rutgers
RUTG
304
-1.5
+1.5
-3.5
+3.5
-3-110
+3-106
Right Arrow67%Right Arrow33%
Fri 10/07, 11:30 PM
Houston
HOU
305
Memphis
MEM
306
+4.5
-4.5
+3
-3
+3-107
-3-107
Right Arrow34%Right Arrow66%
-1.5
+1.5
+7
-7
+7-107
-7+100
Right Arrow63%Right Arrow37%
+3
-3
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5-107
-3.5-102
Right Arrow43%Right Arrow57%
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Purdue
PUR
313
Maryland
MD
314
+4
-4
+3
-3
+3-105
-3-110
Right Arrow44%Right Arrow56%
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Michigan
MICH
319
Indiana
IND
320
-17.5
+17.5
-22
+22
-22-107
+22.5-106
Right Arrow87%Right Arrow13%
-5
+5
-3
+3
-3-107
+2.5+108
Right Arrow73%Right Arrow27%
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
TCU
TCU
337
Kansas
KU
338
-5.5
+5.5
-7
+7
-7-105
+7-108
Right Arrow63%Right Arrow37%
+3
-3
+8
-8
+8-107
-8-107
Right Arrow36%Right Arrow64%
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Missouri
MIZZ
339
Florida
FLA
340
+10
-10
+11
-11
+10.5-105
-11-107
Right Arrow35%Right Arrow65%
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Tennessee
TENN
377
LSU
LSU
378
-3.5
+3.5
-3
+3
-3-104
+3-110
Right Arrow53%Right Arrow47%
+1.5
-1.5
-2
+2
-1.5-110
+2.5-114
Right Arrow68%Right Arrow32%
+4
-4
+5
-5
+5-107
-4.5-110
Right Arrow30%Right Arrow70%
Sat 10/08, 4:00 PM
Texas
TEX
383
Oklahoma
OKLA
384
+2.5
-2.5
-7
+7
-7-107
+7-107
Right Arrow71%Right Arrow29%
+2.5
-2.5
+3
-3
+2.5+100
-2.5-110
Right Arrow20%Right Arrow80%
Sat 10/08, 6:00 PM
Akron
AKR
359
Ohio
OHIO
360
+12
-12
+11
-11
+10.5-106
-11.5+100
Right Arrow63%Right Arrow37%
+27.5
-27.5
+27.5
-27.5
+27.5-105
-27.5-110
Right Arrow63%Right Arrow37%
+3
-3
+3
-3
+3.5-110
-3.5+102
Right Arrow11%Right Arrow89%
+14.5
-14.5
+14.5
-14.5
+14.5-107
-14-110
Right Arrow62%Right Arrow38%
+13.5
-13.5
+9.5
-9.5
+9.5-108
-9-107
Right Arrow56%Right Arrow44%
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Tulsa
TLSA
395
Navy
NAVY
396
-5.5
+5.5
-6
+6
-6-107
+6.5-110
Right Arrow89%Right Arrow11%
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Utah
UTAH
367
UCLA
UCLA
368
-2.5
+2.5
-4.5
+4.5
-4.5-104
+4.5-110
Right Arrow66%Right Arrow34%
-10
+10
-10
+10
-10-107
+10-105
Right Arrow65%Right Arrow35%
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Liberty
LIB
329
UMASS
MASS
330
-26.5
+26.5
-24.5
+24.5
-24.5-107
+24.5-107
Right Arrow52%Right Arrow48%
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Auburn
AUB
325
Georgia
UGA
326
+15
-15
+29.5
-29.5
+30-105
-30-107
Right Arrow79%Right Arrow21%
-5
+5
-5.5
+5.5
-5.5-107
+5.5-107
Right Arrow80%Right Arrow20%
-3
+3
-6
+6
-5.5-107
+6-105
Right Arrow70%Right Arrow30%
Sat 10/08, 7:30 PM
Middle Tenn
MTSU
401
UAB
UAB
402
+10
-10
+9.5
-9.5
+9.5-110
-9-107
Right Arrow31%Right Arrow69%
+9
-9
+7.5
-7.5
+8-110
-7.5-107
Right Arrow45%Right Arrow55%
-13
+13
-26.5
+26.5
-26-108
+26.5-105
Right Arrow85%Right Arrow15%
-10.5
+10.5
-13.5
+13.5
-13.5-110
+14-107
Right Arrow54%Right Arrow46%
Sat 10/08, 8:00 PM
Duke
DUKE
311
GA Tech
GT
312
-3.5
+3.5
-3
+3
-3-107
+2.5+102
Right Arrow90%Right Arrow10%
Sat 10/08, 8:00 PM
UNC
UNC
317
Miami (FL)
MIA
318
+3
-3
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5-107
-3.5-105
Right Arrow80%Right Arrow20%
-19
+19
-18
+18
-18-107
+18-107
Right Arrow82%Right Arrow18%
Sat 10/08, 10:00 PM
W. Kentucky
WKU
403
UTSA
UTSA
404
+5
-5
+6.5
-6.5
+6.5-106
-6.5-107
Right Arrow23%Right Arrow77%
-8.5
+8.5
-10
+10
-10.5-104
+10-105
Right Arrow50%Right Arrow50%
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
Southern Miss
USM
387
Troy
TROY
388
+6.5
-6.5
+6.5
-6.5
+6.5-107
-6-113
Right Arrow36%Right Arrow64%
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
App State
APP
349
Texas St
TXST
350
-19
+19
-18.5
+18.5
-19-107
+19-107
Right Arrow83%Right Arrow17%
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
JMU
JMU
353
Arkansas St
ARST
354
-10
+10
-11.5
+11.5
-11.5-107
+11.5-107
Right Arrow64%Right Arrow36%
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
Wyoming
WYO
409
New Mexico
UNM
410
-3
+3
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5-105
+3.5-107
Right Arrow29%Right Arrow71%
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
UTEP
UTEP
407
LA Tech
LT
408
+1.5
-1.5
+3
-3
+3-105
-3.5+104
Right Arrow23%Right Arrow77%
Sat 10/08, 11:00 PM
UConn
CONN
405
FIU
FIU
406
-4
+4
-5
+5
-5-110
+5-105
Right Arrow77%Right Arrow23%
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Iowa
IOWA
393
Illinois
ILL
394
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5-107
-3.5+100
Right Arrow57%Right Arrow43%
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Clemson
CLEM
327
Boston Col
BC
328
-20.5
+20.5
-21
+21
-20.5-107
+20.5-105
Right Arrow59%Right Arrow41%
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Washington St
WSU
365
USC
USC
366
+10.5
-10.5
+13
-13
+13-107
-13-105
Right Arrow55%Right Arrow45%
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
Army
ARMY
351
Wake Forest
WF
352
+16
-16
+17.5
-17.5
+17-107
-17-107
Right Arrow19%Right Arrow81%
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
K State
KSU
355
Iowa State
ISU
356
-1.5
+1.5
-2
+2
-2-107
+2-107
Right Arrow82%Right Arrow18%
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
S. Carolina
SC
333
Kentucky
UK
334
+12.5
-12.5
+10.5
-10.5
+10.5-107
-10.5-105
Right Arrow31%Right Arrow69%
Sat 10/08, 11:30 PM
BYU
BYU
411
Notre Dame
ND
412
+6.5
-6.5
+3.5
-3.5
+7-110
-3.5-107
Right Arrow39%Right Arrow61%
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5
-3.5
+3.5-110
-3-110
Right Arrow40%Right Arrow60%
-14
+14
-14
+14
-14-107
+14-107
Right Arrow74%Right Arrow26%
Sun 10/09, 12:00 AM
Texas A&M
TA&M
385
Alabama
BAMA
386
+14.5
-14.5
+24
-24
+23.5+100
-24-107
Right Arrow43%Right Arrow57%
Sun 10/09, 1:00 AM
Oregon
ORE
363
Arizona
ARIZ
364
-11.5
+11.5
-13
+13
-13-107
+13-105
Right Arrow72%Right Arrow28%
+7.5
-7.5
+7.5
-7.5
+7+100
-7.5-104
Right Arrow36%Right Arrow64%
+14.5
-14.5
+21
-21
+20.5-104
-21-107
Right Arrow42%Right Arrow58%
-7.5
+7.5
-7
+7
-7-105
+7-107
Right Arrow74%Right Arrow26%

A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.

How NCAAF Projections Work

There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.

At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.

We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.

A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.

The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.

Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.

The Action Network's NCAAF Projections

Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.

The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.

Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.

If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.

Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.

Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.

Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.

You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.

It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.

Frequently Asked Questions
What are NCAAF Projections?
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What NCAAF projections do The Action Network experts provide?
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