2023 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker
|Jayden Daniels - LSU Tigers
|Michael Penix - Washington Huskies
|Bo Nix - Oregon Ducks
|Gunner Stockton - Georgia Bulldogs
|Jalen Milroe - Alabama Crimson Tide
|Kendre Miller - New Orleans Saints
|Carson Beck - Georgia Bulldogs
|Ja'Corey Brooks - Alabama Crimson Tide
|Montrell Johnson - Florida Gators
|Mikey Keene - Fresno State Bulldogs
|Kyron Drones - Virginia Tech Hokies
|Jaylen Wright - Tennessee Volunteers
|MJ Morris - North Carolina State Wolfpack
|Marvin Harrison - Ohio State Buckeyes
|Blake Corum - Michigan Wolverines
|J.J. McCarthy - Michigan Wolverines
The Heisman race commences with a list of massive underdogs -- no one on the list has better than a 16.6% chance to win the trophy, according to implied odds.
The favorite? Of course, the reigning champion: Caleb Williams. The USC QB has returned for his junior season -- and is also the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Beyond Williams is a list of dynamic quarterbacks that are poised to make an impact this season. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers. All three are recent transfers -- a product of the modern, NIL-twinged age of college football.
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik and Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. are generally tied across the market and round out the top-five candidates.
Be wary of this marketplace, however, especially this early on. A notable recent use case: Spencer Rattler. The former Oklahoma QB was the odds on favorite heading into the 2021 season before flaming out in a heap. This list will move hundreds of times before finally settling on a definitive favorite some time in late November.
Who Is the Heisman Favorite?
Who Can Win the Heisman?
There are plenty of players on this odds board who can’t win the Heisman, or are very unlikely to relative to their odds.
The Heisman Trophy winner:
- Is almost always a quarterback
- Wins 10+ games
- Puts up strong raw stats. Efficiency is less important, and touchdowns matter
- Plays in a Power 5 conference
How Does Heisman Voting Work?
870 voters across six regions get three total spots on their ballot, with players getting 3, 2 or 1 point for each vote.
The voters are comprised of primarily sports writers, with past Heisman winners also getting votes.
The regions do matter, because voters are more fixated in the southeast, northeast and midwest. The west coast voters cover a large percentage of the country, but don’t make up a large percentage of the vote. So there can be a bit of an east coast/southeast bias in Heisman Trophy betting and voting.