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College Football Betting Tip: Should Bettors Fade the Public in FCS Playoffs?

Dec 04, 2018 7:55 PM EST
  • The quarterfinals of the FCS Playoffs begin Friday with Weber State hosting Maine (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
  • A popular gambling strategy in college football is betting against the public.
  • Using the Bet Labs database, we analyze whether it has been profitable to fade the public in the FCS Playoffs.

The regular season is in the books, the College Football Playoff has been set and bowl season is right in front of us.

However, besides Army-Navy (3 p.m. ET, CBS) on Saturday, the options are scarce for college football bettors.

Enter the quarterfinals of the 2018 Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) playoffs. To date, the 24-team field has been cut down to eight.

The action kicks off on Friday night with Weber State hosting Maine (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2). The three remaining quarterfinal matchups take place on Saturday.

If you are like most college football fans, you don’t know anything about the FCS. ESPN doesn’t even track statistics for the FCS and few know where Weber State is located (Ogden, Utah).

With little knowledge, how can bettors wager on the FCS Playoffs?

A simple strategy for sports betting is fading the public. The logic is simple: whichever team casual bettors load up on, simply bet the other team. Anyone following this strategy during conference championship week went 6-4 against the spread (ATS).

Here is how betting against the public has worked in the FCS Playoffs:

Betting against the public doesn’t work in the FCS Playoffs. Why? These games do not receive much action. Army-Navy on Saturday has seven times the amount of tickets as Weber State-Maine.

With few bets, there is no public to fade.

If it has not been profitable to fade the public, then gamblers should follow the crowd, which often means betting the chalk.

Since 2005, favorites in the FCS Playoffs have gone 81-69-1 (54%) ATS according to Bet Labs. Teams favored by more than three points are 65-49-1 (57%) ATS.

Bettors playing the FCS Playoffs should go chalk this weekend. Here are current lines:

  • Weber State (-5.5) vs. Maine (Dec. 7, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  • North Dakota State (-26.5) vs. Colgate (Dec. 8, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  • South Dakota State (-9.5) at Kennesaw State (Dec. 8, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
  • Eastern Washington (-9) vs. UC Davis (Dec. 8, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
Credit:

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: North Dakota State Bison safety Dawson Weber

Follow John Ewing on Twitter
@johnewing

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CURR
# BETS
59
-4
59
-3.5
64.5
-11
67.5
-7.5
52
-3
52.5
-5
48
PK
47.5
+2.5
50.5
-7.5
50
-6.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
43
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-3
55
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
49.5
-12
-2.5
73
-3.5
74.5
67.5
-5
60
-3
-3
53.5
-2
51.5
-1.5
57.5
-1
60
55
-3.5
56
-3
61
-3.5
60
-5.5
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-3.5
-3
47
-4
48
-6.5
55
-3.5
55
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60
56
-11
55
-11.5
79
-13.5
80.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-6
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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