College Football Bowl Projections for Week 11: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 11: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads article feature image

Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: The Oregon Ducks.

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 11

Last week’s initial College Football Playoff rankings provided some insight on how the playoff and New Year’s Six bowls could look depending on how different scenarios play out.

My updated bowl projections are based on the following:

  • Georgia winning the SEC
  • Oklahoma winning the Big 12
  • Ohio State winning the Big Ten
  • Oregon winning the Pac-12

In that scenario, I’m projecting all four conference champions will have no more than one loss.

Of course, if those four don’t win their respective conferences, there are several teams that could make their way into the playoff, including Alabama, Michigan, Michigan State, Cincinnati or Notre Dame.

There are now 49 bowl-eligible teams (82 bowl teams are needed) with 19 teams mathematically unable to reach six wins. The remaining 62 FBS teams are still alive to reach bowl eligibility.

Each bowl projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2021 College Football Betting Power Ratings

Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions

college football playoff-cfp-national championship

College Football Playoff National Championship

Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN

Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oklahoma

Action Spread: Georgia -12

College Football Playoff Semifinals

college football-orange bowl

Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL

Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Action Spread: Georgia -8

college football-cotton bowl

Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX

Projection: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Oregon

Action Spread: Oklahoma -3.5

New Year's Six Bowls

college football-sugar bowl

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Alabama

Action Spread: Alabama -12

college football-rose bowl-game

Rose Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA

Projection: Michigan State vs. Utah

Action Spread: Utah -5

college football-fiesta bowl

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ

Projection: Texas A&M vs. Cincinnati*

Action Spread: Texas A&M -3

college football-chick fil a-peach bowl

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA

Projection: Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest

Action Spread: Notre Dame -3

Other Bowls

college football-texas bowl

Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX

Projection: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State

Action Spread: Mississippi State -2.5

college football-citrus bowl

Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Michigan vs. Ole Miss

Action Spread: Michigan -0.5

college football-outback bowl

Outback Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Action Spread: Wisconsin -4

college football-arizona bowl

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ

Projection: Kent State vs. Fresno State

Action Spread: Fresno State -9.5

college football-gator bowl

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL

Projection: Clemson vs. Auburn

Action Spread: Auburn -4.5

college football-sun bowl

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX

Projection: Miami vs. Washington State

Action Spread: Miami -8

college football-music city bowl

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN

Projection: Iowa vs. Arkansas

Action Spread: Arkansas -2

college football-dukes mayo bowl

Duke's Mayo Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC

Projection: North Carolina vs. Tennessee

Action Spread: Pick'em

college football-las vegas bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV

Projection: Penn State vs. UCLA

Action Spread: Penn State -5.5

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college football-alamo bowl

Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX

Projection: Iowa State vs. Arizona State

Action Spread: Iowa State -2.5

college football-cheez it bowl

Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Pitt vs. Baylor

Action Spread: Pitt -3

college football-pinstripe bowl-new york

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY

Projection: Virginia vs. Purdue

Action Spread: Virginia -0.5

college football-fenway bowl-boston

Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA

Projection: Louisville vs. SMU

Action Spread: SMU -1

college football-holiday bowl

SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA

Projection: NC State vs. Oregon State

Action Spread: NC State -5

college football-guaranteed rate bowl

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ

Projection: Minnesota vs. Air Force

Action Spread: Minnesota -4

college football-liberty bowl

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN

Projection: Texas vs. Florida

Action Spread: Florida -0.5

college football-first responder bowl

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX

Projection: Army vs. Middle Tennessee

Action Spread: Army -11.5

college football-birmingham bowl-alabama

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL

Projection: LSU vs. UAB

Action Spread: LSU -7.5

college football-military bowl

Military Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD

Projection: Boston College vs. Houston

Action Spread: Houston -1.5

college football-quick lane bowl-detroit

Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI

Projection: Maryland vs. Northern Illinois

Action Spread: Maryland -10.5

college football-camellia bowl

Camellia Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL

Projection: Troy vs. Miami (OH)

Action Spread: Troy -4.5

college football-hawaii bowl

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI

Projection: Nevada vs. UCF

Action Spread: UCF -1

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college football-gasparilla bowl

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: South Carolina vs. Liberty

Action Spread: Liberty -9.5

college football-armed forces bowl

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX

Projection: Appalachian State vs. Utah State

Action Spread: Appalachian State -15.5

college football-frisco bowl

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX

Projection: Memphis vs. Western Michigan

Action Spread: Memphis -4

college football-famous idaho-potato bowl-boise

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID

Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State

Action Spread: Boise State -9.5

college football-myrtle beach bowl

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC

Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Western Kentucky

Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -7

college football-new orleans bowl

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: Marshall vs. Louisiana

Action Spread: Pick'em

college football-la bowl-jimmy kimmel

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA

Projection: USC vs. San Diego State

Action Spread: USC -6

college football-independence bowl

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA

Projection: BYU vs. UTSA

Action Spread: BYU -2.5

college football-lendingtree bowl

LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL

Projection: South Alabama vs. Central Michigan

Action Spread: Central Michigan -0.5

college football-new mexico bowl

New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM

Projection: San Jose State vs. UTEP

Action Spread: San Jose State -6.5

college football-boca raton bowl Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL

Projection: East Carolina vs. Toledo

Action Spread: East Carolina -2

college football-cure bowl-orlando

Cure Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Charlotte vs. Georgia State

Action Spread: Georgia State -10

college football-bahamas bowl

Bahamas Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas

Projection: Florida Atlantic vs. Ball State

Action Spread: Florida Atlantic -9.5

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.

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