Pros Hammering Thursday Night’s Stanford-Arizona State Over/Under
credit USA Today Sports
- Arizona State hosts Stanford Thursday night (9 p.m. ET on ESPN) with the Cardinal listed as a 2.5-point favorite and an over/under of 59.
- Professional and recreational bettors are taking opposite sides of the over/under in this PAC-12 showdown.
October is arguably the best month of the year for bettors. With all of the major sports in session — NFL, college football, NBA, MLB Playoffs and NHL — pro and recreational bettors alike have a smorgasbord of games on which to get down.
While much of the betting public is focused on Thursday Night Football, Red Sox-Astros Game 5 and the three NBA games, wiseguys have quietly hammered the over/under in tonight’s Pac-12 after-dark showdown between Stanford and Arizona State (9 p.m. ET on ESPN).
According to The Action Network’s college football public betting data, the Stanford-Arizona State over/under opened at 54.5, and 61% of bets are taking the Under. Why?
Because recreational bettors see two teams averaging fewer than 30 points per game on offense while giving up fewer than 22 points on defense. Throw in a moderately high total and Average Joes say, “Under all day.”
The public rarely bets this heavily on an Under. They are psychologically inclined to always go Over. After all, it’s simply no fun to root for punts, missed field goals and low-scoring games.
This heavy Under bias has created a unique contrarian over opportunity for sharps.
Despite 60% of bets going Under, the total has risen from 54.5 to 59. Why would the bookmakers raise the total to hand out extra points to public under backers?
Because wiseguys across the offshore market have been getting down hard on the Over, creating big liability.
Pros at SBG, 5Dimes, ABC, Pinnacle and BetUS all crushed the Over between 52 and 59, triggering five separate steam and reverse line moves from Sports Insights’ Bet Signals.
The Over also enjoys a massive smart money discrepancy. Only 40% of bets are going Over, but they account for 70% of dollars, further evidence of big wiseguy wagers banking on a high-scoring game.