Iowa vs. Iowa State Weather: What Bettors Should Know About the Windy Forecast
Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Connor Assalley
- Ames is expected to be a bit breezy for this afternoon's Iowa-Iowa State showdown (4 p.m. ET, FS1).
- Below we detail how wind has affected college football games in the past, as well as how this line has moved -- perhaps as a result of the forecast.
When College Gameday makes its first-ever appearance at a given school, one of two things is probably true:
- A team is having an unexpectedly terrific season.
- The slate stinks.
This week, it’s definitely the latter. There are no matchups consisting of two Top 25 teams in Week 3, which brought the pregame show to Ames, Iowa for the first time.
Also making an appearance in Ames: wind … and a lot of it.
Current odds as of Saturday at 1 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Throughout the course of the game, a steady 15+ mph breeze should be blowing from sideline to sideline, which is noteworthy, as it means Mother Nature should play a role on every single play, not just the ones traveling into the wind.
The wind speed is also significant, and perhaps moreso, because it’s above the threshold that’s been shown to affect over/unders in college football.
Since 2005, the under is 478-361-13 in games where the wind is blowing at greater than 12 mph. That 57% win rate has profited 92.4 units over the timespan for a 10.7% ROI.
In low-total games (50 or less), that record improves to 195-127-4 (60.6%).
With an opening total of 47, Iowa vs. Iowa State was never expected to be a shootout. Now, though (perhaps in part due to the forecast), it’s expected to be even more of a slugfest.
Fifty-six percent of bets accounting for 70% of actual money being wagered on the total have hit the under. That’s helped bring this number all the way down to 42.5.
While such a line move is concerning — as the number has obviously lost some value since opening — history would suggest that under bettors needn’t worry too much.
In games fitting the “low-total wind system” where the total has fallen by at least a field goal, the under is still 38-26-1 against the closing line.