Updated Michigan vs. Iowa Odds: Total Drops in Big Ten Championship Game

Updated Michigan vs. Iowa Odds

Jim Harbaugh has brought the Michigan Wolverines to their first Big Ten title game ever after shocking Ohio State.

And they're a big favorite to beat the Iowa Hawkeyes, which would give them their first solo conference title since 1997. It would also guarantee them a spot in the College Football Playoff.

FanDuel opened Michigan at -10.5 on Sunday morning. Our power ratings make the Wolverines an 11-point favorite.

Iowa reached No. 2 in the AP Poll early in the season but then the cracks began to show in losses to Purdue and Wisconsin. But the Badgers couldn't beat Minnesota in the season finale, giving the Hawkeyes the Big Ten West title.

There's been very little "luck" involved in Michigan's ascent to the top of the conference. The Wolverines have been steadily rising in our power ratings all season, and they were on the unlucky end of their only loss to Michigan State.

Iowa on the other hand has relied on a host of turnovers and defensive touchdowns, which is why the Hawkeyes have dipped so much in our ratings in the back half of the year.

How Michigan Got Here

Michigan finally got the season it was looking for under Jim Harbaugh: 11 wins and a victory over Ohio State, both firsts in the head coach’s seven-year tenure.

Although the loss to in-state rival Michigan State stings in hindsight — the Wolverines blew a 16-point lead — the program will certainly clock out the regular season with a smile, in a year it wasn’t expected to make this much noise.

To say the Wolverines exceeded expectations would certainly be an understatement.

Harbaugh and Co. defied the doubters on a weekly basis in 2021, leading the nation with a 10-2 record against the spread.

The offense was one of the most efficient in the country.

Michigan put up close to 450 yards per game, finishing with a top-15 scoring offense. Harbaugh preferred to run the ball, posting nearly a 60% rush rate.

Running backs Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum form one of the nation’s top one-two punches. The duo finished the regular season with 29 total touchdowns from scrimmage — Haskins tied a school record with five against Ohio State.

The defense, meanwhile, was stout despite cutting ties with a reputable name in coordinator Don Brown during the off-season.

The Wolverines were top-10 nationally in total yards, passing yards and points allowed per game.

The blue blood’s looking for its first College Football Playoff appearance under Harbaugh.

How Iowa Got Here

The Hawkeyes simply cannot move the ball on offense — they're 121st in yards per play, sandwiched between UL Monroe and Northwestern at 4.60.

Where Iowa does excel is on defense and in controlling field position. It was sixth in yards per play allowed in the regular season on that side of the ball.

Iowa also ranked top 5 nationally in turnover margin at 1.08 per game, not exactly a sustainable rate.

That's why our power ratings and many other models make Michigan such a big favorite in this game.