MLS Week 2 Betting Preview: Will Montreal Impact Pull Off a Second Upset?

MLS Week 2 Betting Preview: Will Montreal Impact Pull Off a Second Upset? article feature image
Credit:

Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Carlos Vela

  • An exciting opening weekend in MLS should have fans chomping at the bit for Week 2, including notable match-ups like LAFC-Portland and NYC FC-D.C. United.
  • I've broken down the betting market, line moves and lopsided wagers to find the best value plays to make.

There was a lot to digest from the opening weekend of the 2019 MLS season, so here’s a quick recap:

  • On opening day, all 20 clubs scored a goal for the first time ever. It’s the only time 20+ teams have scored on the same day.
  • Even though 23 of 24 clubs scored on opening weekend, Atlanta United were the only team to be shut out. They led MLS with 70 goals last season.
  • Draws were the big winner on opening weekend with five of twelve cashing for +8.41 units.
  • Home teams earned four wins for -3.96 units while road teams won three games for -1.33 units.
  • Portland and Colorado played to a 3-3 final in the snow which was the coldest game in MLS history.

 

There are a number of intriguing battles in Week 2 including LA Galaxy-FC Dallas, Philadelphia-Sporting KC, Portland-LAFC and D.C. United-NYC FC.

Keep in mind that three clubs had to play in the CONCACAF Champions League on Tuesday/Wednesday and could feel the effects this weekend: Houston Dynamo, Sporting KC and Atlanta United.

None of those teams won, and Atlanta United were the only team to even score a goal.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, line moves, betting market breakdown and three value plays for MLS Week 2.

(2019 MLS Record: 3-0-0, +3.75 units)


Odds and Over/Unders

The home team is the favorite in every match this weekend with six clubs listed in the -125 range (Chicago, FC Dallas, Sporting KC, Real Salt Lake, LAFC and NYC FC).

FC Cincinnati (+625) are the biggest underdogs again for Week 2 as they travel to reigning champions Atlanta United. They got off to a superb start at Seattle on opening day before ultimately dropping a 4-1 contest.

Every total on the board is listed at 3 goals except for New England-Columbus, which is a juiced-up 2.5 and could easily close at 3 goals, too.

MLS Betting Market Breakdown and Value Plays

FC Dallas are responsible for the biggest line move of the week from -110 to -140 against the Galaxy, but that doesn’t automatically mean “sharp money”. In fact, the entire move can be attributed to two major injuries for LA: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (doubtful, Achilles) and Romain Alessandrini (doubtful, hamstring).

Sportsbooks have simply anticipated these players being out and shifted the lines accordingly since they play such key roles for the Galaxy.

As for odds moving due to early sharp money, Real Salt Lake (-140) and Atlanta United (-250) have been hit the hardest. Neither club won last week but bettors believe they’ll bounce back at home as considerable favorites.

I don’t particularly like either of them, especially at the current prices, and would actually lean toward FC Cincinnati (+1.5) on the goal line to keep things close.

Two road underdogs that won their opening match have also seen some early sharp money for Week 2: Montreal +235 (at Houston) and Minnesota +200 (at San Jose). I’m definitely on board with the Impact and still think there’s plenty of line value left at the current odds, but am not quite sold on Minnesota yet.

As for lopsided public betting action, Seattle (-195) and LAFC (-125) are the two most popular wagers on the board. You can also expect Atlanta United (-235) to be included in many parlays, especially since they play the last game on Sunday night.

I’ll be backing Philadelphia and Montreal on the road this weekend and also love the value on Chicago (-125) at home. The Fire were actually impressive in a 2-1 loss at the Galaxy last Sunday and will be getting Nemanja Nikolic back this weekend.

Against a much weaker Orlando City side, I like Chicago to win at any price better than -130.

Value Plays

  • Philadelphia +0.5 (+115) at Sporting KC
  • Montreal (+245) at Houston
  • Chicago (-125) vs. Orlando City

Updated 2019 MLS Cup Odds

  • The LA Galaxy are now +600 co-favorites along with the New York Red Bulls to win MLS Cup.
  • LAFC improved from +1000 to +900 with their win over Sporting KC.
  • FC Cincinnati fell from 66-1 to 150-1 to win the Cup following their loss at Seattle in Week 1.
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