Premier League Week 30 Preview: Bettors Back on Manchester United to Beat Arsenal
Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal and Manchester United battling
- Premier League Week 30 is headlined by a top-six fixture between Arsenal and Manchester United (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET on NBC) and early bettors have been taking a side to win following United's Champions League upset over PSG.
- Dan McGuire analyzed all ten matches on the board this weekend to find the biggest line moves, lopsided bets and value plays.
Liverpool dropped points again last weekend and are now a point behind Manchester City at the top of the Premier League. Man City have jumped to -260 favorites to win the league while Liverpool have moved to +200.
This weekend’s marquee matchup pits Arsenal against Manchester United (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET) which has easily attracted the most betting action of any game on the board.
Here’s a look at all the season trends before getting into Week 30’s line moves, lopsided bets and value plays.
2018-19 Season Trends
- Leicester City lost under new manager Brendan Rodgers last weekend but the Foxes remain the most profitable moneyline club (+11.92 units) on the season, just ahead of Crystal Palace (+11.91 u).
- Fulham have been the worst bet by far, costing backers nearly 20 units on the season. Public bettors have cleaned up fading them all year long.
- Home teams won five of 10 matches last weekend to improve to +21.49 units on the season (47.4%). Home underdogs have accounted for almost all those winnings (+19.5 u).
- EPL draws are still hitting at a record-low 19.4% for 2018-19.
- Favorites have improved to +9.49 units on the year while underdogs are -6.52 u.
- Overs have had the slight advantage among totals, hitting in 51.9% of matches.
- Wolves are the first team to go over their Season Point Total.
For Week 30, I’ve analyzed the entire betting market and provided five value plays (EPL Season Record: 37-69-1, -16.71 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Betting Market Breakdown and Value Plays
Arsenal host Manchester United in one of the most important matches of the season, and all the early action has come in on United following their Champions League miracle.
That makes sense considering the Gunners’ struggles against top teams and United brimming with confidence after beating PSG, 3-1, to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals.
After originally opening +240, United have been bet all the way down to +200 while Arsenal have increased from +115 to +140.
Early bettors have been hammering the over, too, shifting the total from 2.75 to 3. There have been at least three goals scored in 62% of games involving Arsenal this season and 76% of games involving Manchester United.
Liverpool and Chelsea are both big home favorites on Sunday, but lines have shifted slightly toward the road underdogs (Burnley and Wolves).