Premier League Week 30 Preview: Bettors Back on Manchester United to Beat Arsenal

Liverpool dropped points again last weekend and are now a point behind Manchester City at the top of the Premier League. Man City have jumped to -260 favorites to win the league while Liverpool have moved to +200.

This weekend's marquee matchup pits Arsenal against Manchester United (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET) which has easily attracted the most betting action of any game on the board.

Here's a look at all the season trends before getting into Week 30's line moves, lopsided bets and value plays.

2018-19 Season Trends

• Leicester City lost under new manager Brendan Rodgers last weekend but the Foxes remain the most profitable moneyline club (+11.92 units) on the season, just ahead of Crystal Palace (+11.91 u).
• Fulham have been the worst bet by far, costing backers nearly 20 units on the season. Public bettors have cleaned up fading them all year long.
• Home teams won five of 10 matches last weekend to improve to +21.49 units on the season (47.4%). Home underdogs have accounted for almost all those winnings (+19.5 u).
• EPL draws are still hitting at a record-low 19.4% for 2018-19.
• Favorites have improved to +9.49 units on the year while underdogs are -6.52 u.
• Overs have had the slight advantage among totals, hitting in 51.9% of matches.
• Wolves are the first team to go over their Season Point Total.

For Week 30, I've analyzed the entire betting market and provided five value plays (EPL Season Record: 37-69-1, -16.71 units).

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)

Betting Market Breakdown and Value Plays

Arsenal host Manchester United in one of the most important matches of the season, and all the early action has come in on United following their Champions League miracle.

That makes sense considering the Gunners' struggles against top teams and United brimming with confidence after beating PSG, 3-1, to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals.

After originally opening +240, United have been bet all the way down to +200 while Arsenal have increased from +115 to +140.

Early bettors have been hammering the over, too, shifting the total from 2.75 to 3. There have been at least three goals scored in 62% of games involving Arsenal this season and 76% of games involving Manchester United.

Liverpool and Chelsea are both big home favorites on Sunday, but lines have shifted slightly toward the road underdogs (Burnley and Wolves).

This makes a bit of sense since Liverpool have a crucial Champions League match against Bayern Munich to look forward to, and Chelsea just played a Europa League match against Dynamo Kiev on Thursday night.

The biggest line move all week has been toward Leicester City (-125 to -165). Once again bettors are fading Fulham and it's certainly warranted considering they've lost 20 of 29 matches on the season.

The Cottagers have been outscored 12-2 in their last four games (all losses) will also be missing Andre Schurrle due to illness.

Tottenham haven't won any of their last three EPL matches although they did just dispatch Dortmund to reach the Champions League quarterfinals.

The Premier League title race may be over for them, but it's still crucial to finish in the top-four, and they're the most lopsided bet of the week to beat Southampton.

West Ham (91%) are also getting a huge amount of support at lowly Cardiff and odds have been adjusted from +135 to +120.

Sportsbooks will certainly be rooting for Cardiff to at least earn a draw, but they've been outscored 10-1 in their last three games so that will be a tall task.

Rounding out the most popular public bets of the weekend is Manchester United (+200) and Crystal Palace (-115).

I would be wary betting on United right now considering all the injuries they're dealing with, and the fact that the value has already been sucked out of the line.

Arsenal are also in a buy-low situation since they just lost, 3-1, at Rennes in the Europa League Round of 16 and I expect a bounce-back at The Emirates.

At anything above +125 I'll be backing the Gunners to be victorious at home, so fade the trendy road underdog.

Value Plays

• Newcastle-Everton Draw (+220)
• Huddersfield-Bournemouth Draw (+225)
• Fulham (+470) vs. Leicester City
• Liverpool/Man City Parlay (-275)
• Arsenal (+140) vs. Manchester United