Game 6 Trends: Warriors Are the Rare Double-Digit WCF Favorite
Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry
The Action Network analysts John Ewing and Evan Abrams comb the Bet Labs database each day to bring you profitable trends for the slate. Here are notable historical trends for Rockets-Warriors Game 6.
Can the Warriors (-12) keep their season alive Saturday night? Since 2005, double-digit favorites have gone 98-8 (92.5%) straight-up in the playoffs (56-47-3 against-the-spread).
On the same note: This is just the 14th time since the 1990-91 regular season that a team has been favored by 10 or more points in the conference finals. The previous 13 teams have gone 12-1 SU and 6-7 ATS.
Golden State has lost back-to-back games. Under Steve Kerr, when the Warriors have been on a losing streak, they have gone 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS in their next game. In the playoffs, when the Dubs have lost consecutive games, they have gone 3-1 SU and ATS.
Chris Paul left Game 5 with a right hamstring injury and has been ruled out for Game 6. When both Paul and James Harden have started this season, the Rockets have gone 55-9 (85.9%) SU and 35-27-2 (56.5%) ATS. If one or both have been out, the team has gone 21-12 (63.6%) SU and 15-18 (45.5%) ATS.
The Warriors turned the ball over 16 times in both losses to the Rockets in Games 4 and 5. Under Kerr, Golden State has gone 14-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs after turning the ball over 15 times or more in consecutive games, including 6-0 SU and ATS at home, covering the spread by 8.4 PPG.
You know it’s been bad for the Warriors when they show up on both of these lists: The Warriors have recorded fewer than 20 assists in consecutive games for just the third time under Kerr in both the regular season and playoffs … and all three instances have been in the playoffs. The other two instances were Games 5 and 6 of the 2016 NBA Finals, in which the Warriors lost Game 7, and Games 3 and 4 of the 2016 Western Conference Finals. Golden State beat and covered against the Thunder in Game 5 and eventually won that series in seven games.
Under Kerr, the Warriors have returned home to Oracle Arena to play a game after a road loss 29 different times, including the playoffs. Golden State has gone 25-4 SU but just 16-13 ATS at home after a road loss due to how many points the Warriors are on average favored by in those games (11.8 PPG). In the playoffs in this spot, Golden State has gone 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS, with their lone loss coming against the Cavaliers in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals.
Over their last three playoff games, the Rockets are shooting 38.6% from the field. They’ve been below 40% in three consecutive games. Since the 2005 playoffs, only one team has played a conference final game (or NBA Finals game) after shooting 40% or worse from the field in three consecutive games: the 2008 Spurs, who lost in five games to the Lakers.
On a similar note: Not only did the Rockets shoot under 40% from the field in their last two games, but both were wins in the playoffs. Since 2005 in the regular season and playoffs, 13 teams have played a game coming off at least two consecutive SU wins in which they shot under 40% from the field in both games. Those teams have gone 3-10 SU and ATS, including 0-5 SU and ATS in the playoffs, with the last team to accomplish this feat being the Lakers in the 2013 playoffs against the Spurs.