3 NBA Props for Monday: Ariza Over/Under 9.5 Points?

This article offers data-driven analysis on notable NBA player prop bets, often incorporating The Action Network’s public betting data along with the tools at FantasyLabs and Sports Insights.

Monday’s analysis will cover the following three props for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals featuring the Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets beginning at 9 p.m. ET:

• P.J. Tucker (Houston) over/under 9.5 points
• Trevor Ariza (Houston) over/under 9.5 points
• Draymond Green (Golden State) over/under 12.5 points

Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs NBA Player  tool.

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P.J. Tucker Over 9.5 Points (-120)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

After topping 25 minutes in only one of his first four playoff games, Tucker has logged at least 33 in five of his past six games, scoring 11 or more points in four of them. Much more so than Utah in the last round, matching up with Golden State demands strong wing defenders like Tucker who can also space the floor on the end, so his minutes are likely to remain in the 30s throughout this series as well. He scored 32 points in 71 minutes in three games against Golden State during the regular season, a rate which would require only 24.4 minutes for him to reach double figures.

Trevor Ariza Under 9.5 Points (-125)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

We know Ariza is a spot-up shooter who's on the floor for defense more than offense, but he's become even more passive on offense than usual in these playoffs, with his usage rate clocking in at just 11.8%, nearly three percentage points lower than his regular-season mark of 14.4%. Ariza is averaging only 8.7 points per game in the playoffs and has been held to nine points or fewer in six of Houston's 10 playoff games, including four of the past five. He averaged only 5.5 points in 36.5 minutes per game in two contests against Golden State during the regular season season, and his 11.0% usage rate in those games was also well below his regular-season mark. What's more, sharp money is on the under in this game, and the majority of public money overall has come in on the underdog Warriors, both of which could indicate that the books may be slightly overvaluing Houston's scoring potential.

Draymond Green Over 12.5 Points (-115)

9 p.m. ET | TNT

Not including the game Kevin Durant missed, Green averaged 15.0 points in 31.8 minutes per game in two games against Houston during the regular season (he also scored 17 points in the game Durant missed, for what it's worth). Green is averaging 13.1 points in 37.4 minutes per game in the playoffs, and his points per game has actually increased to 14.5 in the four playoff games Curry has played.

All lines accurate as of 6:45 p.m. ET on Monday, May 14.

Pictured above: Trevor Ariza (1) and Draymond Green (23)
Photo credit: Sergio Estrada – USA TODAY Sports