Wake and Rake: Warriors-Rockets Driving Sharp vs. Public Disagreement

Credit:

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The line for Monday’s Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals opened back on Wednesday, meaning there’s been plenty of time for bettors to size up, analyze and get down on this game.

The combination of a huge playoff series between two high-scoring teams and the five-day window to bet this game results in the perfect recipe for heavy public action.

 

Not only are recreational bettors all over this game, but professionals have quietly been picking their spots, leveraging one-sided betting to consistently buy back value. Using the tools included in Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro subscription, I’ve broken down where sharps are finding value in tonight’s Warriors-Rockets Game 1 matchup (9 p.m. ET).

Books opened the total tonight’s game at 225.5, and 68% of betting tickets have taken the over. It’s not at all surprising to see the public loading up on the over, nor is it shocking to report that wiseguys are instead finding value betting the under.

According to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, sharps have already hit the under a handful of times, explaining why the total has dropped to a consensus of 224, and even 223.5 at Pinnacle, despite the majority of action playing the over.

Expect public bettors to continue betting the over right up until tip, with professionals looking at the under as sportsbooks are forced to react to lopsided over action.

Top Photo: Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (from left) celebrates after making a basket in front of forward Kevin Durant and forward Draymond Green

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