NBA Finals Game 1 Player Prop: Will Danny Green Drop 9 Points?

NBA Finals Game 1 Player Prop: Will Danny Green Drop 9 Points? article feature image

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors guard Danny Green (14).

  • Chris Raybon sees value on one NBA player prop in particular for Game 1 of the 2019 NBA Finals on Thursday night.
  • He breaks down how he's betting the points prop for Raptors SG Danny Green.

The player prop highlighted below is for Game 1 of the 2019 NBA Finals on Thursday night:

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Raptors SG Danny Green

THE PICK: Under 8.5 Points (-130)

Given how well Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell and Serge Ibaka have played lately, Green is essentially Toronto’s worst rotation player right now.

He averaged a miserable 3.5 points on 18.8% shooting in the Bucks series. Yes, he has finals experience, but with the stakes this high, I’m not sure Raptors coach Nick Nurse can justify giving Green more minutes than VanVleet and Powell.

Over Green’s past four games, his minutes have gone 34, 25, 15, 14.

Green’s brickfest actually began in Game 6 of the Philly series with a 2-of-8 performance, and from the start of that game on, he’s shooting an abysmal 9-of-43 (20.9%). Given that Green figures to spend most of his time being guarded by either Klay Thompson or Andre Iguodala, Kawhi Leonard suddenly becoming the most emo player in the NBA seems more likely than Green turning it around now.

At 8.5 (-130), the under on this prop is rated a perfect 10 in Bet Quality by our player props tool with a 24% difference between projected and implied total. Green has been held to 8 points in each of his past eight games, failing to score more than 6 points in six of those eight, so I’d feel comfortable betting it down to a line of 6.5 at the same juice.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there.