NBA Odds, Betting Picks & Predictions: Our Staff’s 3 Favorite Bets for Saturday (Feb. 6)
While the Super Bowl will take center stage tomorrow, the NBA’s got plenty to offer on Saturday night.
NBA Odds & Picks
Nets at 76ers
Joe Dellera: The Nets are on the second game of a back-to-back tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers. Kyrie Irving out with a finger injury and Kevin Durant may be ruled out due to health and safety protocols, which means more minutes and opportunities for other players.
Joe Harris is averaging 3.4 3-pointers made on 6.9 attempts per game — a 49.4% clip. Last night, Harris was 5 of 8 from 3-point range, and he’s made at least three 3-pointers in six of his last seven games. I think there’s reason to believe he can keep the hot hand.
Although the 76ers give up 3 point opportunities at a slightly lower than league average rate, opponents shoot 38% from 3, and 39.1% on non-corner 3’s, the second-worst mark in the league.
Harris takes the majority of his shots, 62%, from 3-point range, but they’re primarily non-corner 3’s. Harris takes 45% of his shots from above the break and he hits those 50% of the time, per Cleaning the Glass.
Given Harris’ preferred shot distribution, and the 76ers injuries to both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, they may have even more difficulty defending that 3-point shot. I expect Harris to continue his hot shooting Saturday night.
FanDuel has the best price at -164.
Raptors at Hawks
Raheem Palmer: This is a game I’d like to get ahead of given the uncertainty surrounding Trae Young, who has a calf contusion and is questionable. The Hawks are a whopping 15.3 points per 100 possessions better offensively with Young on the floor vs. off the floor so his absence should make a huge difference to this total.
Even if he does play, it’s tough to expect him to be 100%. Even with Young in the lineup my projections make this game 220 so it feels like this line is a tad high. Both of these two teams are just 14th and 15th in pace respectively and the Raptors are 10th in Offensive Rating with the Hawks ranking 16th.
These two defenses have actually been better than perception says as the Hawks are 11th in Defensive Rating and the Raptors are 14th. With the Raptors coming off a back-to-back against the Nets, this feels like a let-down spot offensively, so I’ll take the under 222.5 here. Be sure to monitor Young’s status and hit it again should the total rise.
Grizzlies at Pelicans
Brandon Anderson: I love a good cross-sport prop bet, and the Super Bowl always gives us a bunch of great options. We’ve got cross-sport props for NBA, NHL, Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, golf, and probably how many nachos you’ll eat during the Big Game, if you dig deep enough into the books.
Jonas Valanciunas has missed the last five games for the Grizzlies but looks like he’ll make his return tonight. He’s not on the injury report at all, but I wouldn’t expect his minutes to return to his full load, even with Brandon Clarke potentially missing. For players who have missed games this season, it’s been typical to see them return and play around 18 to 20 minutes their first game back, and that’s about what I expect from Valanciunas tonight.
Valanciunas has always been a terrific rebounder, and he’s averaging 10.4 RPG this season, but that’s in 26.8 minutes a game. With a reduced minutes load, I would expect him to finish around seven boards tonight, especially against a really tough rebounding team like the Pelicans.
Hey, you know who else is tough? Rob Gronkowski.
Gronk isn’t what he once was, but the man loves playing in the Super Bowl and always saves his best for the biggest moments. This dude was living the dream, getting cameo WWE appearances, and came out of retirement, and you know why? Because he wanted to win one more Super Bowl with Tom Brady. And now he has his chance.
Gronkowski had only 45 catches this season but still averaged 13.8 yards per catch and found the endzone seven times. In his prime, Gronk would get short screens to see what he could do, but as he’s aged, he’s being used more sporadically for bigger plays down the field. Gronk had only one catch each of the last two playoff games, but they went for 14 and 29 yards each. And he had his biggest game of the season against the Chiefs in November, recording 106 yards on six catches, including a huge 48-yard play.
Maybe we get a dinky little screen to Gronk, or even no catches at all, but I don’t buy it. As great as the quarterback matchup is Sunday, the tight end matchup may be just as good, and there’s no way Gronk is having a quiet night.
I’ll take Gronkowski over Valanciunas all day here. I think he’ll only need his first catch to go for 10 yards, and I’m expecting a big game from the big man.
BetMGM is wrong to give us even odds on both sides. I would’ve made Gronk at least a -150 favorite for his first reception to go for more yards than Valanciunas has rebounds on Saturday.