NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 2 Under-the-Radar Big Men With Upside (Wednesday, Jan. 6)
Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Griffin #23 and Mason Plumlee #24 of the Detroit Pistons.
- With 11 games on Wednesday's slate, there are tons of player props on tonight's slate.
- Bismack Biyombo and Mason Plumlee may not be particularly entertaining Brandon Anderson sees value on betting the two big men.
- He breaks down his analysis and picks below.
Bad beats happen. Last night it was early third quarter of the Spurs game and just about halftime of the Blazers game when I checked in on our props action on the handy dandy Action Network app; things were looking good.
DeMar DeRozan and Dejounte Murray were at five each — assists and rebounds respectively — coasting toward our Spurs 5.5 overs, while Nurkic had just two boards at almost halftime and looked like an easy under 9.5 there.
When I checked back 45 minutes later, disaster. Murray still sat on five boards and finished there, held off the glass the entire second half, while Nurkic exploded with a huge third quarter and had 10 boards already as the period closed. He didn’t record another rebound in the fourth quarter. And so we went 1-2 on the day, with both losses coming by 0.5. Brutal.
Still, you have to play the long game here. We already know the numbers are in our favor, and we’re still at 24-16-1 on the season. Don’t panic, and don’t stray from what works. Make like Nemo and just keep swimming, swimming, swimming.
Today, we’re going big to get it back. No, not like you think. The other big.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Bismack Biyombo, Over 1.5 Assists (-150)
|Hornets at Hawks||Hawks -6|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
Honestly, I would’ve smashed the under 1.5 on the number of times we’d bet on Biyombo this season, and to be fair, we’re still under after today. But tonight we’re playing two overlooked starting centers and looking to make some cash.
Cody Zeller lasted only one game before going out injured, so Biyombo is the starter now. In the six games since Zeller’s injury, Biyombo is averaging 9.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in almost 29 minutes a game. He’s gone over this total with multiple assists in all but one game and has at least four dimes in all but two of them.
So, this is weird. Bismack Biyombo has never even averaged one full assist over a full season. If you asked me two weeks ago to list off Bismack Biyombo skills, I would’ve started with being super tall and putting up huge rebounds in one random series for the Raptors right before free agency vaulted him into a $70-million contract and pretty much stopped there. Passing would, uh… not have been on my list.
But the Hornets are playing fast and moving the ball around quickly, even as they get blown out. Call it the LaMelo Ball effect. Charlotte leads the NBA with almost 30 assists per game, and the Hornets have seven rotation guys averaging 2.5 or more dimes. The Hornets ball is (groan) buzzing, and this game against the Hawks should be fast and high scoring.
I usually hate playing props at super low numbers because it’s so easy to miss with variance. But the flip side is also true. Biyombo could be silent for three quarters and hit this prop with a pair of dimes in one fourth-quarter minute.
I won’t go crazy here, but I trust our props tool, and our projections have Biyombo at 2.2 assists. The tool also loves P.J. Washington’s assists over 1.5 if you can find it at decent juice. I’ll play Biyombo here to -165.
Mason Plumlee, Over 7.5 rebounds (-110)
|Pistons at Bucks||Bucks -12|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
We can’t do a Pu pu platter of blah starting center props without including Mason Plumlee.
Our Props tool has been recommending Plumlee all season and we’ve played him twice, going 1-1 and hitting this exact rebounding line last time. Plumlee’s numbers are up after leaving Denver because, duh, he’s starting now instead of backing up the best center in the league.
Plumlee is playing over 28 minutes a game and averaging double-digit rebounds for the first time in his career at 10.3 RPG. Rebounding is a volume game, and Plumlee’s minutes up are leaving low hanging fruit for production, but he’s also at a career-best rebounding rate right now too.
Need more convincing? Plumlee is a perfect 7-0 against this rebounding line so far this season. He’s had eight boards three times, plus games of nine, 10, 12, and 17.
Plumlee’s minutes are starting to trend down some, and he played only 20 minutes against these Bucks two days ago. It’s not a great matchup for him, or for Detroit. Still, we only need eight boards, and Plumlee should play long enough to get them. I’ll play this prop to -140.
Come on, overlooked big men! Let’s do this.