Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Monday: Will Landry Shamet Score 11 Points?
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Clippers guard Landry Shamet (20)
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Monday night.
- Props include point totals for Nets PG D'Angelo Russell and Clippers SG Landry Shamet.
There’s one NBA player prop highlighted below from each of Monday night’s postseason matchups:
- Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Nets PG D’Angelo Russell
THE PICK: Under 25 Points (-115)
For as much trouble as the 76ers have with playmaking guards, Russell needed an absurd 46.4% usage rate and 25 shots just to beat this prop by one point in Game 1.
The 76ers will likely put forth a better all-around effort after losing Game 1 at home, and the most likely outcome is them holding him closer to his season average of 22.0 points per game against them.
Russell has scored 25 or more points in 35.4% of his games this season, so there should be some cushion here even if this drops to 24.5 and gets juiced up.
Clippers SG Landry Shamet
THE PICK: Under 10.5 Points (-135)
Steve Kerr and the Dubs have identified shutting down Shamet as the key to slowing down the Clippers offense, and even though Doc Rivers will probably draw up a few new plays to try to get him going, I’ll bet against an inexperienced role player with a target on his back any day.
In Game 1, the Warriors primarily defended Shamet with Klay Thompson, who knows a thing or two about chasing around sharpshooters because he makes opponents do it to him every game.
Shamet has gotten off only three shots and scored just 3 points on 39 possessions when guarded by Thompson in two meetings against Golden State this season, per NBA Stats.
If the Warriors are again able to hold Shamet in check early, he may struggle for playing time down the stretch because the Clippers will need to keep Lou Williams on the floor for offensive purposes and Patrick Beverley and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor for defense.
This prop is rated a 9 in Bet Quality by our NBA Player Props tool, and points props rated as such have a 61%/38%/1% win/loss/push rate this season.
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there, as well.