Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Wednesday: Will Lauri Markkanen Drop 21 Points?
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen (24)
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Wednesday night.
- Props include point totals for Celtics SF Jaylen Brown, Bulls PF Lauri Markkanen, Grizzlies SF Justin Holiday and Blazers SF Maurice Harkless.
The four NBA player props highlighted below are from the following four games:
- Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers: 7 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m ET
- Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies: 8 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Celtics SF Jaylen Brown
THE PICK: Under 14.5 Points (-116)
Like his shorts, Brown tends to come up short against the 76ers, scoring 12 points in 28 minutes against them on Oct. 16, four in 20 on Dec. 25 and seven in 24 on Feb. 12.
Brown has struggled to get his shot off against lengthy, strong defenders like Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris, and hasn’t even been able to get it going with J.J. Redick on him, so that trend is likely to continue on the road in a game where sharp money is on the under.
Brown has been under 14.5 in 41-of-66 (62.1%) games this season, so this prop should have value up to at least -150 (60% implied probability).
Bulls PF Lauri Markkanen
THE PICK: Under 20.5 Points (+110)
Markkanen has hit a wall of late, failing to hit 20 points in each of his past nine games. The 7-foot, 240-pounder has been ice cold in March, shooting just 38.8% from the field and 28.1% from 3.
According to our NBA On/Off tool, Markkanen’s per-36 on/off splits with Zach LaVine (thigh, probable) on and Otto Porter (shoulder, out) off would leave him short of this line at 19.8 points per game, and he’s failed to score 21 or more in both meetings with Washington this season.
Overall, the second-year big has failed to post at least 21 points in 31-of-49 (63.2%) games and has been under 20 in 28-of-49 (57.1%), so this prop should have value down to under 19.5 at -130.
Grizzlies SF Justin Holiday
THE PICK: Under 9.5 Points (-125)
Holiday has been an under machine ever since he joined the Grizzlies, posting single-digit points in 17 of his 27 starts (63.9%).
Yes, there will be more minutes available for him with Avery Bradley (shin) out for this game and C.J. Miles (foot) out for the season, but will it matter?
Per the On/Off tool, Holiday’s scoring output increases a measly 0.3 points per 36 minutes with Bradley off the floor, which still gives plenty of cushion given his average of 7.5 points in 27.1 minutes per game with Memphis.
Factoring in the minutes increase, this prop should still have value up to -150.
Blazers SF Maurice Harkless
THE PICK: Under 9.5 Points (-104)
As with Holiday, you would think the absence of a high-usage wing — in this case, C.J. McCollum (knee, out) — would lead to an increase in scoring, but that hasn’t been the case: Harkless is averaging 1.3 fewer points per 36 minutes when the defense doesn’t have to worry about McCollum’s presence on the floor this season.
For the year, Harkless has been under 9.5 in 35-of-49 (71.4%) games, so this should have value up to -195.
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there as well.