Betting Odds: Boston Celtics-Philadelphia 76ers
- Spread: 76ers -3
- Over/Under: 224.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
Credit the NBA for recognizing that in March, college is king. On the eve of the NCAA tournament the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers will meet for the fourth time this season.
With both teams close to full strength, can Philly get the W against the Celtics? Our analysts discuss.
Betting Trends to Know
Over the past two seasons, including the playoffs, the Celtics are 10-2 straight and ATS when playing the 76ers, covering the spread by 6.3 points per game. As an underdog, Boston is 5-1 ATS vs. Philly during that span. — John Ewing
Under Brad Stevens, the Celtics are 111-82-3 (57.5%) ATS when facing an opponent with a better record. Boston is 43-28 (.606) this season, Philadelphia is 46-25 (.648). In road games against opponents with a better record, the C’s have gone 63-34-1 (64.9%) ATS. — Ewing
Joel Embiid sat out on Tuesday to get ready for a Wednesday night at home against the Celtics. Good thing too, because the Sixers are a completely different team with and without Embiid this season.
With Embiid in the lineup:
- 40-18 straight up
- 29-29 against the spread
Without Embiid in the lineup:
- 6-7 straight up
- 5-8 against the spread
Mears: How I'm Betting Tonight's Game
Boston has taken the first three games of this series and will look to complete the sweep tonight in Philadelphia.
Before you go too crazy on those games as representative, however, note that none of the three included both teams at full health:
- Oct. 16Boston wins 105-87: Before Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris trades
- Dec. 25Boston wins 121-114: Before Tobias Harris trade
- Feb. 12Boston wins 112-109: No Kyrie Irving
Of course, the Celtics winning the last meeting without Irving is notable, especially since Philly was a full strength, but even that isn’t super representative of tonight. It was Harris’ third game with the team after the trade deadline, and he went 4-of-14 from the field. The 76ers were clearly still getting used to one another.
It still isn’t the largest sample in the world, but in 250 possessions together, Philly’s new-look starting lineup has absolutely roasted teams. On those plays, they’ve outscored opponents by 20.8 points per 100 possessions. They’ve posted a ridiculous 122.4 Offensive Rating and a stingy 101.6 Defensive Rating.
They’ve been awesome.
That’s actually far superior to the mark of the Celtics starters, who posted a +5.9 point differential in 1,038 possessions together. It’s an underrated storyline this season, but Boston's real strength has honesty been its bench. Guys like Daniel Theis and Aron Baynes have been great all year, and the Celtics' wing players — Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward — have come along well recently, too.
This game and line really comes down to whether you think Boston can buck its long-term trend of struggling on the road. The Celtics are just 13-19-2 ATS on the road this season; they’re 3-6-1 in their last 10 overall. The 76ers, meanwhile, are 28-9 straight-up and 19-18 ATS at home.
From an on-court perspective, in the first three games the 76ers had a good shot profile but really struggled with turnovers, rebounding and finishing in transition.
The first point seems likely to continue; they’ve struggled all year protecting the ball. But the other two are departures from their season-long strengths, as they rank fourth in rebound rate and sixth in transition efficiency.
If those revert to the mean, and if Boston continues to play a little worse on the road, there’s likely small value on the 76ers here.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
