Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Feb. 4): All About Anthony Davis vs. Spurs
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Davis (3) of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s four games:
- Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets: 9:00 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT
Let’s dive in.
Nuggets F Jerami Grant
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This line is almost suspiciously low. The Nuggets are missing both Paul Millsap and Michael Porter Jr. tonight, so Jerami Grant should see plenty of minutes. He has played over 32 minutes in four straight, and we are projecting him at 34 minutes tonight.