Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Feb. 4): All About Anthony Davis vs. Spurs
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Davis (3) of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s four games:
- Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets: 9:00 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT
Let’s dive in.
Nuggets F Jerami Grant
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This line is almost suspiciously low. The Nuggets are missing both Paul Millsap and Michael Porter Jr. tonight, so Jerami Grant should see plenty of minutes. He has played over 32 minutes in four straight, and we are projecting him at 34 minutes tonight.
Grant is an elite athlete and should have plenty of opportunities to grab rebounds against a Portland team that features two ancient forwards in Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza. Grant will have a rebounding edge all game, and we project him at 7.3 boards. I’ll happily play Grant as high as -150 here.
Lakers PF Anthony Davis
THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (+110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Anthony Davis does a lot of things well, but passing is not usually super high on the list of things that come to mind. That may be beginning to change. Davis has at least five assists in four of his last seven games, including six in each of his last two.
Davis is slowly growing in his ability to play as the second option, and sometimes that means more passing. With a juicy +110 here, I like the opportunity to play Davis’s passing at plus odds against a relatively tame Spurs defense. I’ll play this one up to -110.
Spurs PF Trey Lyles
THE PICK: Under 6.5 points (-115) | Under 5.5 rebounds (-143) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Somehow, Trey Lyles is still starting games for the San Antonio Spurs in the Year of our Lord 2020. It’s wild, really, considering many NBA fans have probably never even heard of Lyles.
Don’t confuse “starter” for big minutes, though. Lyles gets played off the court in many matchups and tonight he’s matched up against … checks notes … Anthony Davis. I’m guessing you’ve heard of Davis, and let’s just say Lyles is not exactly going to be able to keep up with him.
Our model projects Lyles at only 14 minutes, and it’s very common for his minutes to disappear quickly in the wrong matchup. It loves both of these props at 10 out of 10, fading Lyles’s time on the court as any opportunity to make an impact.
The numbers are so low I don’t want to play both, but either looks like a nice option. I slightly prefer the rebounds at the current number but would play the points up to -130.