NBA Sharp Betting Picks (Feb. 4): Spurs vs. Lakers, Hornets vs. Rockets Hit by Pro Action
Darren Carroll/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James and DeMar DeRozan
Only four games will tip off in the NBA tonight, but two of them — Bucks-Pelicans and Blazers-Nuggets — are doing a fine job attracting bets, and should get some decent attention from casual fans.
Neither of those games, however, has been a prime target for sharp bettors. Instead, they’ve hit the other pair of Tuesday’s matchups: Hornets-Rockets and Spurs-Lakers.
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Hornets vs. Rockets
8 p.m. ET
This over/under checks off all the boxes of what makes a sharp bet.
First, we have a line moving against a popular side (what’s known as reverse line movement). In this case, 78% of bettors are on the over, yet the total has fallen from 225.5 (after an initial rise from the opener of 224.5) down to 223.5, and even 223 in some spots, which should tell you something about those that have taken the under.
The 22% of under bettors have also generated an impressive 73% of actual money, and while that does create a monetary liability for sportsbooks, it also tells us that they’re much bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps.
And to confirm the pro action, two Sports Insights Bet Signals –which track and record sharp action based on specific instances of market activity — have revealed smart money hitting the under, giving oddsmakers no choice but to lower their total.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 225.5 to 224.5)
Spurs vs. Lakers
10 p.m. ET
The bet-vs.-money discrepancy on this total hasn’t been quite as glaring, but the sharp action has been just as impactful based on how the line has moved.
This time, the line is actually moving with the slightly more popular side, as the number has fallen from 229 to 226.5 behind 55% of bets on the under. Those tickets, however, have once again come from bigger bettors, as they’ve generated 67% of actual money, serving as the first indication of professional action.
SI Bet Signals have confirmed that action again, providing evidence of sharp activity on the under at 227.5.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 229 to 226.5)