Pelicans-Warriors Betting Preview: Will Golden State Continue to Cover?

Oct 31, 2018 7:07 PM EDT

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Betting odds: New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors

  • Spread: Warriors -10.5
  • Over/Under: 237.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


The Warriors seem to be back to their world-destroying ways and they will catch a New Orleans Pelicans team with Anthony Davis questionable tonight. What is Brow’s value to the spread? Does it even matter versus this version of the Warriors? Our analysts dive in.


Injury Watch: Anthony Davis

DFS: The Pelicans have released their official injury report for Wednesday’s contest vs. the Warriors: Davis is questionable, Elfrid Payton (ankle) is out, Julius Randle (foot) is probable, and Darius Miller (quad) is doubtful.

Coach Alvin Gentry stated that he wouldn’t make a determination on Davis’ status until after Wednesday’s shootaround. Randle and Jahlil Okafor alternated starts in Davis’ two-game absence, but the Pelicans offense has sputtered without the help of Payton as well.

With both Payton and Davis sidelined, Solomon Hill joined the starting lineup on Monday and Wesley Johnson joined the rotation. Check Diallo has also gained footing in the frontcourt.

When Davis has been off the court this season, Randle has led the Pelicans with 1.45 DraftKings points per minute, but Randle, Nikola Mirotic and Jrue Holiday have all experienced a decrease in their true shooting by at least 4%. — Matt LaMarca

Betting: Based on our proprietary power ratings, we have this as about Warriors -10 with Davis playing and -15.5 with him out. I mused on this morning’s 5-Minute Lines podcast that books will likely open this line right in the middle to hedge, and it indeed came out at -12. It has since ticked down to -10.5, but there’s likely value either way if you can monitor the news like a hawk. — Bryan Mears


Moore: Is It Time to Start Backing the Warriors ATS?

The Warriors are on one, as the kids say. Last season, the Warriors were exhausted, bored and unmotivated. They had nothing to prove and were just going through the motions to finish out the season and get another ring, which of course they did.

Going into this season, with a circling air of “this might be the last hoorah,” we didn’t know what to expect. Would they come in blazing? Sleep through another regular season? Perform just to expectations?

They weren’t all that impressive in their first three games. They weren’t hitting shots, the ball didn’t find energy and they lost to Denver. Since that game, they’ve found their mojo. (Funny how many teams that happens to after playing Phoenix.)

The Warriors are now looking like the 2015-16 team, running it up and breaking records for fun. They have nothing to prove against the league, so now they’re testing themselves. Notably, that year the Warriors went 59-45-2 for a league-best 56.7% rate against the spread.

If that’s where this Warriors team is at, this might be the season to go back to hammering Golden State game after game. Even if Davis plays, I’d have this at Warriors -9.5 at Oracle; our internal projections have the line even slightly higher than that.

The humiliate-everyone Warriors are back, which could be good news for bettors after two years of underwhelming performances since the arrival of Kevin Durant. — Matt Moore


Betting Trends to Know

Davis has missed the Pelicans’ past two games due to an elbow injury, and if he can’t go on the road against the Warriors, New Orleans is going to be in some trouble.

The Pelicans have played three road games in Golden State since 2013 without Davis, and the Warriors have dominated from start to finish: Through three quarters, Golden State outscored New Orleans by an average of 88.9 to 67.1 in those games, including 34.3 to 24.7 in their infamous third quarter coming out of the half.

The Warriors return home from a three-game road trip. Under Steve Kerr, Golden State is a mediocre 13-14 ATS in the first home game after at least a three-game road trip, per our Bet Labs data. Where the advantage lies in Golden State is in the first half.

In this same spot, the Warriors are 18-9 against the first-half spread (+7.6 units). One caveat: They’ve actually lost their past three first halves straight up in this spot against the Nets, Thunder and Knicks dating back to last season.

In the Pelicans’ previous game against the Nuggets, New Orleans shot 52.4% from the field in its 116-111 loss in Denver.

Since Steve Kerr took over as head coach of the Warriors in 2014, Golden State has faced a team that shot better than 50% from the field in the previous game 19 times at Oracle Arena:

The Warriors are 14-5 ATS (73.7%), covering the spread by 8.1 PPG. In that same spot, the Warriors are 12-6-1 against the first-half spread, as well. — Evan Abrams

Did you know? Steph Curry is shooting 54.3% from the floor, 51.6% from 3-point range and 92.0% from the free throw line. Steph joined the 50/40/90 club in the 2015-16 season. Only Steve Nash (four times) and Larry Bird (twice) have repeat 50/40/90 seasons in their careers.

The Warriors routed the Bulls 149-124 on Monday. Since 2005, NBA teams that won their previous game by 20 or more points have gone 1,145-1,119-36 (51%) ATS in their next game.

Under Kerr, the Warriors are 45-22 (67%) ATS in their next game following a blowout win by 20 or more points. — John Ewing


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Photos from USA Today Sports. Pictured: Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
POR
WAS
224
+1
221
+1.5
NYK
ORL
214
-4.5
217
-4
LAL
MIA
228
-1.5
226.5
+1
GSW
SAS
217
-1.5
213.5
-3