UFC Vegas 86 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Bryczek vs Potieria, Tavares vs Rodrigues, More (Saturday, February 10)

Check out our UFC best bets with our top UFC Vegas 86 predictions and picks for Saturday, February 10.

UFC Vegas 86 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).

Middleweight veteran Jack Hermansson and fas-rising Joe Pyfer meet in the UFC Vegas 86 main event. However, when it comes to their UFC predictions for fight night, our MMA experts are targeting other fights on the card.

So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s pre-Super Bowl card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.

*Matchup odds as of Saturday and via Caesars. Bet on UFC Vegas 86 with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code!

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections

Billy Ward: Max Griffin vs. Jeremiah Wells

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET

If we ignore the final four minutes of his last appearance, Jeremiah Wells is undefeated in the UFC. Obviously, that’s not a great way to handicap fights, but Wells was clearly the better man for the overwhelming majority of his lone loss in the UFC octagon, with live odds in the third round having him as roughly a -1000 favorite.

His skill set is undeniable, with elite grappling – both wrestling and submissions – and heavy hands. He can be a little chinny at times (he got dropped twice by Matthew Semelsberger), but the fact that he was able to recover and win the fight is just as much a positive as it is a negative.

I have similar mixed feelings about his last loss. On the one hand, gassing out and getting caught in an anaconda choke by an inferior grappler isn’t great. On the other, Wells went out on his shield, fighting the choke until he was unconscious rather than admit defeat.

I like betting on fighters willing to fight until the very end, and it’s impossible to question the heart or determination of Wells (-145). That could come into play against Max Griffin (+122), a veteran with big power who struggles to close out fights. Griffin has scored a knockdown in three of his last four UFC appearances, but each fight went to a decision.

The strength of Wells’ team at Renzo Gracie Philly is also a big factor here. I fully expect them to shore up the mistakes – both technical and conditioning-wise – that led to his first UFC defeat. I like Wells on the moneyline, but I am also interested in his finish line at +200 – and a live bet/hedge on Griffin if his line blows up early, just in case.

The Pick: Jeremiah Wells (-150 at Caesars)

Tony Sartori: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Bruna Brasil

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC prelims feature Loma Lookboonmee (-300) set to take on fellow unranked strawweight Bruna Brasil (+240).

Lookboonmee is a heavy favorite, priced at -275 to -315 across the betting market as of Thursday evening.

However, instead of laying such a heavy price on the favorite, I think there is a ton of value on Lookboonmee to win by decision at +115 via bet365. First, that price is off compared to the rest of the market, which is 15-30 cents longer than anywhere else at the time of writing.

There is a mathematical edge right off the bat. On top of that, when actually analyzing these two fighters, Lookboonmee by decision is certainly her easiest path to victory.

Let's start on the feet, where she carries little knockout power. Lookboonmee's only KO/TKO win in her 8-3 professional career came with an elbow on the mat in a small promotion against a fighter who was just 2-5 in professional MMA before retiring from the sport after the bout.

Through seven bouts in the UFC, Lookboonmee has never recorded a knockdown. If you take out the possibility of a knockout, then we have to look at the probability of a submission.

I think this method of victory is far more likely, but Brasil has never been submitted through 13 professional fights while Lookboonmee has just one submission victory over her eight professional wins. Yes, that happened in her latest fight against Elise Reed. However, Reed has a tendency to give up the neck, and she has been submitted by a rear-naked choke in each of her past two losses.

Lookboonmee prefers to shoot for takedowns and assume a dominant position to accumulate control time and coast to a decision victory. Six of her eight pro wins have come by decision.

I like this trend to continue against Brasil, who possesses a mere 53% takedown defense across three UFC bouts.

The Pick: Loma Lookboonmee by Decision (+115 at bet365)

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Sean Zerillo: Brad Tavares vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET

Brad Taveras is a classic point fighter; the Hawaiian has 23 bouts across 14 years in the UFC, and 17 of those fights (74%) have seen the scorecards.

Five of Rodrigues' seven UFC bouts have ended in eight minutes, and just four of his 19 career fights (21%) have reached a decision – a drastic difference between the pair, compared to the middleweight divisional average of 40%.

However, while "Robocop" is a muscular grappler with excellent back-taking ability, he doesn't consolidate and hold onto positions for long stretches or consistently submit opponents with ease. Tavares has robust first-layer takedown prevention (82% career) and solid submission defense; I don't see Rodrigues becoming the first to finish him on the mat.

Rodrigues (-260) is both a bit chinny and a bit gassy, and Taveras (+210) could take over down the stretch as the Brazilian tires; however, Brad doesn't carry a ton of power in his hands – he's more of an attritional finisher, and any knockout in this fight likely comes from Rodrigues early, or Taveres in the late stages.

Rodrigues is the the deserving favorite: he's the far superior athlete, the likelier finisher, and he possesses all of the grappling upside. Still, Tavares' defensive grappling and lack of punching power should extend this fight more frequently than the odds suggest.

I expect this fight to reach a decision 53% of the time (-113 implied); bet that prop to -105, or play the Over 2.5 Rounds to -125.

The Pick: Brad Tavares vs. Gregory Rodrigues Over 2.5 Rounds (-110 at ESPN BET)

Dann Stupp: Robert Bryczek vs. Ihor Potieria

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET

Can you really give me a good reason not to fade Ihor Potieria?

Should Potieria, who's 1-3 in the UFC with a very misleading victory over a way-past-his-prime Shogun Rua, really be anything other than a massive underdog?

And granted, Potieria (+145) is still an underdog on Saturday. But he's a veteran of the UFC who's now fighting a UFC newcomer in fellow middleweight Robert Bryczek (-175), and oddsmakers and bettors are favoring the inexperienced newcomer anyway.

However, in all honesty, Bryczek should probably be a much, much bigger favorite.

Potieria's record (20-5) and finishing rate in those victories (75%) look impressive. But I invite you to jump over to Tapology and look at the records of the opponents he faced back on the Ukrainian regional scene. You know how many of those 19 opponents had winning records with at least four wins? Just three of them – and they were 11-5, 5-2 and 8-0.

Now go take a look at Bryczek's record. You'll notice a much more credible level of competition – with a similar finishing rate – in well-regarded Eastern European promotions. You'll also notice that he's been stopped by punches just once – to 17-5 Kaik Brito (a known finisher who has 14 knockouts in 17 career wins).

That alone would justify Bryczek's somewhat-chalky price tag, in my opinion.

But also consider that Potieria is dropping a weight class and taking this bout on about a week's notice. Add in his back-to-back knockout losses to Carlos Ulberg and Rodolfo Bellato to close out 2023, and he's not exactly riding a wave of momentum into UFC Vegas 86.

Finally, the biggest knock on Bryczek could be his lack of UFC experience. But he's not your typical green newcomer – and fighting in the sterile, lifeless UFC Apex facility isn't exactly like being fed to the wolves at a major UFC pay-per-view event in Madison Square Garden.

Plus, Bryczek had a canceled UFC bout back in September 2023, so he's had plenty of time to work through any octagon jitters and anxiety during an extended training camp. At this point, he's probably ready to beat down the door, get in the cage, and get this UFC debut done.

Give me Bryczek to win on the moneyline, and I'd take his line down to -200.

The Pick: Robert Bryczek (-160 at Caesars)