UFC Vegas 86 Props: Can the MMA Prop Squad Build on Its 127.8% ROI in 2024? (Saturday, February 10)
Alejandro Salazar/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC middleweight Joe Pyfer
Check out our UFC prop bets for UFC Vegas 86 tonight, Saturday, February 10, which features a Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer main event.
UFC Vegas 86 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
The MMA Prop Squad is back and currently firing on all cylinders for tonight's Super Bowl weekend fight card. Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +31.1 units a +9.8% ROI per bet since 2022.
In 2024 alone, the squad is +23.0 units for a 127.8% ROI. That's due in large part to squad member Liam Heslin, who has scored long-shot props in back-to-back UFC events at +850 and +950 odds. And he's back this week with fellow squad members Clint MacLean, Billy Ward, John LanFranca, Bryan Fonseca, Dan Tom, Tony Sartori and Dann Stupp.
Check out all of their UFC Vegas 86 props below.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
*Odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel. Bet on UFC Vegas 86 with our FanDuel promo code tonight!
Clint MacLean: Devin Clark by Round 2/3 KO (+650)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:20 p.m. ET
I have tried to target the chin of Marcin Prachnio for a long time. The 35-year-old simply does not like being hit, and his in-fight reactions make it obvious.
In his last fight, Prachnio was handled by Vitor Petrino on the ground. Before then, we had not seen anybody quite expose his grappling deficiency and cardio on top of his questionable durability to that extent.
Devin Clark (-235) is not somebody whom I'm rushing to the window to get my money on, but this seems like a perfect fight for him. He is more durable than Prachnio (+194), a better wrestler, he's faster, and he seems to have found new life training at Elevation Fight Team.
Clark has been sitting on his punches more and had Kennedy Nzechukwu hurt badly in his last fight, and if you can't keep pace with him, he showed us against William Knight that he can finish late when his opponents slow down.
While I do believe Clark will KO Prachnio on Saturday, I do think we can tempt fate by fading Round 1 because Clark is a volume-based fighter and not a one-hitter-quitter power puncher. So we'll go to FanDuel's "KO/TKO Round Combos" menu for the Round 2/3 play.
Grind for five minutes and then get us a big score in the later rounds, Devin!
The Pick: Devin Clark by Round 2/3 KO (+650 at FanDuel)
Billy Ward: Bruna Brasil by Decision (+420)
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:40 p.m. ET
Earlier in the week, I made a moneyline wager on Bruna Brasil at +240. The logic boiled down almost entirely to: This fight is pretty likely to hit the judges, and it’s pretty much a coin-flip if it does.
So imagine my surprise when method-of-victory props opened up, and Brasil by decision came in north of the unofficial +400 Prop Squad threshold.
I don’t expect Brasil (+230) to truly be the better fighter against her opponent, Loma Lookboonmee (-280). Lookboonmee is the far better technical striker, and she has shown significantly improved grappling in recent contests – especially her last fight, where she picked up three takedowns en route to a submission win.
However, I do expect judges to have a hard time discerning damage in this fight. Strawweight is the lightest weight class in the UFC, and the limited power from most fighters in the division makes it somewhat difficult to judge.
Thus, if the logic around Brasil is largely based on a questionable-to-unearned decision, it stands to reason that her decision line should be reasonably close to her moneyline odds. That’s not the case, though, which makes the +420 line so appealing.
The Pick: Bruna Brasil by Decision (+420 at BetRivers)
John LanFranca: Carlos Prates by Submission (+800)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:20 p.m. ET
Carlos Prates has not secured a submission victory since early in his MMA career, but that is why we are getting a great price to take a shot here against fellow welterweight Trevin Giles.
Prates will prefer the fight to play out in kickboxing range, using both his kicking attack and power to land the more damaging shots.
Giles (+200), meanwhile, is more of a boxer with a solid jab, but I do not believe he will be able to match the output of Prates (-245).
After a couple of minutes of the fight playing out on the feet, I expect Giles to try to implement some wrestling to avoid damage. Prates is a BJJ black belt and will be able to hunt for the submission if Giles is successful in getting the fight to the mat.
Additionally, Giles does not have the cardio to keep implementing this game plan for all three rounds. He leaves plenty of openings for submissions as well, as we have seen him submitted three times in the UFC.
Whether it is Prates hunting for a submission off his back, capitalizing on an opening due to Giles tiring out, or a second- or third-round club and sub, Prates is live for the submission here. While a KO/TKO victory is more likely, the substantial difference in price is what makes the submission prop at +800 a good value.
The Pick: Carlos Prates by Submission (+800 at FanDuel)
Bryan Fonseca: Darrius Flowers by Round 2/3 KO (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
One sprinkle I'll always consider is betting an old guy to get knocked out, especially if said old guy has several losses and at least one by stoppage.
I followed this formula when betting Keyshawn Davis vs. Jose Pedraza on Thursday's Top Rank boxing card on ESPN, which featured Teofimo Lopez vs. Jamaine Ortiz. Davis stopped Pedraza in Round 6, and the stoppage was a +170 bet.
I now like taking a shot at Darrius Flowers (+112) by KO/TKO in general here at +215, but I'll take it happening in Round 2 or 3 for the purposes of Prop Squad-worthy juice.
Michael Johnson (-132) is 37, man. He's 21-19 and is 5-11 since beating Edson Barboza in February 2015. Now, of his 19 losses, he's been stopped only three times, but the last time we saw him, Carlos Diego Ferreira stopped him in Round 2 on that Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill card this past May.
I'm mildly surprised he's the favorite, and while we don't know much about Flowers save for his Contender Series showing in 2022 and a submission loss to Jake Matthews at UFC 291 last July, he's 12-6-1 with eight KOs.
I think this fight could be explosive and short, and I'm backing the 29-year-old Flowers to get the stoppage – with a long shot of it happening in Round 2 or Round 3 as a nod to Johnson's toughness for making it through the first.
The Pick: Darrius Flowers by Round 2/3 KO (+600 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Brad Tavares by KO (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to take an unpopular but potent flier on a main-card middleweight offering between Brad Tavares (+190) and Gregory Rodrigues (-230).
Although it's hard to disagree with Rodrigues being the betting favorite here, I suspect that there is some quiet value on the Tavares side of this fight.
Although Tavares gets a lot of criticism for his lack of UFC finishes, the Hawaiian could find himself in the perfect storm tonight.
Not only has "Robocop" demonstrated that he has an off switch that's vulnerable enough for a diabetic welterweight washout to hit, but Rodrigues has also had a habit of sustaining damage, in general, given his willingness to engage in all-out wars.
Even if Rodrigues showed the ability to course correct and play into his on-paper strengths in his last outing opposite Denis Tiuluilin, I doubt he'll be able to get any grappling going against one of the best anti-grapplers north of 170 pounds in Tavares (who boasts an impressive 82% takedown defense rating over a 14-year sample size).
Add in Rodrigues' propensity to eat leg kicks, and I can't help but sprinkle on Tavares – by cut or KO – to finally get the stoppage win he's been due for.
The Pick: Brad Tavares by KO (+500)
Liam Heslin: Gregory Rodrigues by Submission (+900)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET
Like my colleague Dan Tom above, I'm also targeting a stoppage in the Brad Tavares vs. Gregory Rodrigues fight, but I'm betting the other side of this matchup.
"Robocop" Rodrigues is a credentialed Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitor with an esteemed black belt under Henrique Machado. He's had an increased focus on his grappling skill in recent training camps while surrounding himself with the likes of Rafael Lovato Jr., Gilbert Burns, Vicente Luque and Brendan Allen.
Rodrigues has always had the grappling acumen, but he fell in love with his hands and his ability to secure knockouts for a while before suffering his own KO losses.
Despite the fact he is yet to secure a UFC submission, Rodrigues has been controlling opponents, attempting subs (0.5 per 15 minutes) and securing almost three takedowns per fight on average.
Tavares has elite anti-wrestling, but against a high-caliber opponent, I don't think he's above getting dropped with a strike in this fight or caught quickly in a scramble.
The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues by Submission (+900 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Ihor Potieria by Submission (+1200)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Unranked middleweights Robert Bryczek (-168) and Ihor Potieria (+142) square off on Saturday's UFC main card in what oddsmakers are expecting to be a quick contest. The Under 1.5 is currently priced between -260 and -305 across the market, and if any type of finish is live, then why not take a flier on Potieria to win by submission at a whopping 12-1 price?
Potieria carries a ton of power and has yet to land a takedown across five bouts in the UFC, which is why this number is so long. However, is it out of the question that Potieria lands one of those big shots that drops Bryczek, subsequently jumping on a downed opponent and locking in a sub?
I don't think it's out of the question at all. The guy can grapple despite us not seeing it yet in the UFC.
Seven of his 16 finishes are by submission, which could also come into play against a fighter like Bryczek, who is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and could implement some wrestling/grappling at some point. I think this market is just too heavy on expecting these two guys to stand and bang until an early stoppage, which very well could happen and is the most likely outcome.
With that said, I don't think a grappling game plan should automatically be thrown out of the window by either camp. Both guys can hunt submissions, though we have seen much more of it out of Potieria (prior to the UFC) than we have from Bryczek.
At 12/1, there are worse dart throws to make.
The Pick: Ihor Potieria by Submission (+1200 at FanDuel)
Dann Stupp: Jack Hermansson in Round 4/5 or Decision (+450)
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
It's hard for me to disagree with the popular sentiment this week for the UFC Vegas 86 main event: Take favorite Joe Pyfer (-255) to win it early, and bet on underdog Jack Hermansson (+210) to take it late.
I understand the rationale, and it's hard to disagree with it. I think "Swangin' and Bangin'" Jack Hermansson probably knows a steady, calculated and patient game plan could be the best way to mount an attack against explosive up-and-comer Pyfer.
Hermansson doesn't need to play Pyfer's high-octane game. He's got enough five-round experience to know how to manage a 25-minute workload. He also knows the unique challenges that come with those (non-)championship fourth and fifth rounds.
The problem, of course, is that Hermansson first has to get there. The 35-year-old hasn't always shown the most grit after experiencing adversity in the cage, and his resolve sometimes quickly wanes when things don't go his way. Pyfer will test him early, no doubt. He could even make this a very short night.
But Hermansson's a fighter, and no one wants to get bumped aside from a kid a decade younger, so "The Joker" hopefully enters tonight's main event with a chip on his shoulder.
So, with my Hermansson-probably-wins-in-late conclusion, how do I bet it? This is where not only odds-shopping – but also market-shopping – is important. The MMA world has no shortage of betting options – rounds, methods and even the ending minute of a fight – but I think our best option comes from FanDuel's best-in-class MMA betting options.
Specifically, I'm tapping into the fight's "Round Props" menu and then the "Alt. Round Betting" submenu and taking "Jack Hermansson Round 4, 5, or by Decision" at +450 odds. That covers us for any Hermansson win after Round 3.
I don't blame anyone for taking Hermansson at +210 straight up on the moneyline, but in the spirit of Prop Squad, I'm finding something a little juicier that I believe has just as much value.
Let's ruin Pyfer's first UFC main event.
The Pick: Jack Hermansson Round 4, 5, or by Decision (+450 at FanDuel)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
