Wednesday’s College Basketball Betting Previews: Marquette-Villanova, Missouri State-Illinois State
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marquette guard Markus Howard
After a jam-packed college hoops card on Tuesday, the action doesn’t slow down on Wednesday. Nine ranked teams will take the court, including No. 10 Marquette at Villanova after unranked Illinois State and Missouri State battle it out in Normal.
Where’s the value in these two games? Let’s break them down.
>> All odds as of Tuesday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and win probabilities on your bets.
Missouri State Bears at Illinois State Redbirds Betting Odds
- Spread: Illinois State -1.5
- Over/Under: 135
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
The last time these two programs squared off, the Bears (12-15 against the spread) walked off with a half-court 3-pointer after facing a five-point deficit with eight seconds to go.
This sequence is flat-out ridiculous. Illinois State was up five with eight seconds left, too. pic.twitter.com/VYEgNi6R0w
— Eli Hershkovich (@EliHershkovich) February 11, 2019
Despite covering that one, the outright loss sent the Redbirds (12-14-1 ATS) into a tailspin, falling in each of their next three games before nabbing a win over Drake on Sunday. Illinois State owns a pair of advantages offensively in this revenge spot, especially from behind the arc.
Dan Muller’s unit ranks third in both 3-point attempts per game (40.2%) and perimeter scoring rate (33.5%), respectively, in Missouri Valley play while the Bears have let up the second-highest 3-point clip (40.1%) and the fourth-highest scoring rate (29.8%) in that department.
The Redbirds’ 78th-ranked defensive rebounding percentage (26.1%) will allow them to control the pace and push the floor often, manufacturing open 3-pointers in transition. Missouri State doesn’t present a defender athletic enough to stick with the 6-foot-6 Milik Yarbrough (16.6 points per game) as well. He notched 17 points via 7-of-14 shooting in their last matchup.
Plus, Illinois State has amassed the MVC’s second-highest 2-point clip (52.0%), led by the 6-foot-9 Phil Fayne (15.5 ppg) in the low-post. The Bears are letting up the third-highest scoring rate from inside the arc (51.4%), so Fayne and Co. shouldn’t have many issues offensively.
On the flip side, Dana Ford’s unit thrives on dwindling the shot clock and attacking the rim in the waning seconds. It’s dialed up the league’s second-highest free-throw rate (38.0%) and scoring rate from that area (19.8%), respectively, but ISU has held its conference opponents to the third-lowest scoring rate from the line (16.0%).
The Redbirds are in prime position to enact revenge on their heart-breaking loss in Springfield, Mo.
THE PICK: Illinois State -1.5
Marquette Golden Eagles at Villanova Wildcats Betting Odds
- Spread: Villanova -5
- Over/Under: 143.5
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: Fox Sports 1
When will the Golden Eagles (17-8-1 ATS) finally get some respect on the road?
After laying just a few points in a dominating outright road win at Providence on Saturday, Steve Wojciechowski’s bunch is somehow getting points at the Wildcats (17-10 ATS).
The home team’s narrative is set up to perfection. Villanova has racked up three consecutive losses — straight up and ATS — along with suffering a one-point loss at Marquette (+1.5) on Feb. 9. Nevertheless, much of the Wildcats’ recent woes stem from their perimeter shooting, generating a mere 27.6% clip from that area amid this three-game stretch.
They rely on their 3-point attack more than any other Big East program, too.
The Golden Eagles are yielding the Big East’s second-lowest 3-point scoring rate (31.4%) during their conference games, sparked by two-guard Sacar Anim and his tremendous on-ball defense. Expect the 6-foot-5 Anim to slow down Villanova’s Phil Booth (18.4 ppg) yet again, as the senior guard was held to just 2-of-9 shooting from behind the arc in their last meeting.
At the other end, Marquette has tallied the fifth-highest 3-point clip (39.9%) across college basketball while the Wildcats are letting up the second-highest scoring rate (36.5%) from that vicinity in league contests.
From Markus Howard (25.3 ppg) to the Hauser brothers, the Golden Eagles are loaded with perimeter scoring and shot 38.9% from 3-point land against them just over two weeks ago.
Even in what feels like a must-win scenario for Jay Wright’s squad, grab the points.
THE PICK: Marquette +5