College Basketball Betting Tip: Bad Teams Undervalued on the Road
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Towson Tigers guard Brian Fobbs
- The Towson Tigers have lost and failed to cover the spread in each of their last six college basketball games.
- Using Bet Labs, we find out how bettors can take advantage of struggling college basketball teams, including Saturday's matchup between Towson and Delaware (7 p.m. ET).
What do you know about the Towson Tigers? My guess, nothing. Towson is 5-14 on the season and hails from the Colonial Athletic Association. The Tigers have faced only one power conference program this season, Virginia, and were blown out, 73-42, while failing to cover as 26-point underdogs.
Towson hits the hardwood on Saturday for a road game against Delaware (7 p.m. ET, not televised). Given the loaded college hoops slate — 16 games featuring top-25 teams, headlined by No. 1 Duke hosting No. 4 Virginia — it is likely that this mid-major showdown goes overlooked.
That would be a mistake. Towson is bad, but that is precisely why I’m going to bet this game. The Tigers have lost and failed to cover six straight games.
Many gamblers would avoid such a team but poor recent form, like Towson has displayed, leads to inflated lines for its next opponent. The Tigers are also on the road Saturday and we know home-court advantage is overvalued in college basketball, which should create extra value on Pat Skerry’s squad.
Since 2005, teams performing poorly, defined as having lost and failed to cover in five consecutive games, that play their next game on the road have gone 333-253-10 (56.8%) against the spread (ATS). A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,232 following this system.
With a large sample size (596 games) and consistent results (profitable in 12 of 15 seasons), this is a betting strategy worth following.
Towson isn’t the only team that fits this betting strategy over the weekend. On Sunday, the Bradley Bears head to Carbondale, Ill. for a game against Southern Illinois (4 p.m. ET, ESPNU). Bradley has lost and failed to cover its past five games, making it a match for this system.