CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Miami-Syracuse, 2 Other Thursday Games
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jim Boeheim
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Thursday night, headlined by Miami-Syracuse (8 p.m. ET on ESPN CE).
- Sharps are also getting down on Monmouth-Canisius (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+) and Cal Santa Barbara-CS Fullerton (10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting all three games.
Vanderbilt and La Salle came up huge for sharps last night, earning wiseguys a 2-1 night with their three Wednesday plays. With a massive 70+ game Thursday slate, pro bettors will look to remain extra disciplined and get down on only the most valuable games of the night.
After analyzing tonight’s college basketball action using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve pinpointed three games drawing sharp action, with tip times of 7, 8 and 10 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
>> All odds, percentages and signals as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets.
Monmouth @ Canisius
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 136 to 138.5)
Sometimes betting percentages can be deceiving. For this reason, you always have to look at the number of bets as well.
For example, currently 72% of bets (and 84% of dollars) are taking this MAAC over. On the surface, this seems like a heavy public play. However, the game is so low-bet (we’ve tracked only 542 total bets so far) that the 72% on the over is most likely made up of sharps with an edge. Simply put, Average Joes aren’t clamoring to get down on such an obscure game. They’re likely bypassing it entirely.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the over, with sharps hammering over 136, over 136.5 and over 137.5. This influx of pro money pushed the total all the way up to 138.5.
Miami (FL) @ Syracuse
8 p.m. ET | ESPN CE
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 138.5 to 139.5)
Public bettors are biased toward betting overs. And who can blame them? Rooting for an action-packed, high-scoring game is fun. Hoping for blocked shots, bricks and shot clock violations is the betting equivalent of watching paint dry.
However, on the rare instances that the public loads up on an under, it creates unique value for sharps to sweat a contrarian over.
Syracuse is known for the stifling zone defense. As a result, nearly 70% of bets are taking the under in this ACC matchup. However, despite this overwhelming public support, the total has risen, not fallen.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the over. This smart money is responsible for the line rising.
Cal Santa Barbara @ Cal State Fullerton
10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Cal State Fullerton (moved from pick’em to -1.5)
Sharps are staying up late to sweat this Big West showdown.
Santa Barbara boasts an impressive 14-3 record, while CS Fullerton is just 6-12. So why on Earth did this game open at a pick’em? Vegas isn’t stupid. If a line looks fishy, there’s a reason behind it.
Nearly 80% of bets are laying the points with the Gauchos, however the line has moved in the opposite direction — toward the Titans.
We noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves from three separate books on the home team. Sharps hit CSFU twice at a pick’em and then again at -1.
The fact that pro bettors kept getting down despite the line getting worse signals supreme wiseguy confidence.