College Basketball Sharp Report: Pros Betting Ohio State-Northwestern, 2 Other Wednesday Games
Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ohio State Buckeyes forward Andre Wesson (24).
- Sharps are getting down on three college basketball games tonight, headlined by LSU-Florida (7 p.m. ET on ESPN2).
- Wiseguys are also betting St. Bonaventure-Davidson (7 p.m. ET on Stadium) and Ohio State-Northwestern (9 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Sharps suffered a tough luck 1-2 night on Tuesday. Wiseguys cashed the Duke under, but Virginia Tech collapsed (+4.5 to +4, led by 14 at halftime, lost by 9 in OT) and Nebraska came back but fell short (+14 to +13, lost by 15). There’s no crying in betting. On to the next.
After analyzing Wednesday’s stacked 43-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
St. Bonaventure @ Davidson
7 p.m. ET | Stadium
Sharp angle: St. Bonaventure (moved from +6 to +5)
This Atlantic 10 showdown is flying under the radar with casual bettors. But not for the sharps.
On the surface, it looks like an easy cover for the home favorite. After all, Davidson is 21-8 while the Bonnies sit at 15-14.
This line opened at Davidson -6. Currently, 66% of bets are laying the points with Steph Curry’s alma mater, yet the line has fallen to +5.
What caused this sharp reverse line movement? As always, follow the money.
The Bonnies (who have won six straight) are only receiving 34% of bets but 87% of dollars– making them a fit for the top Bet Labs PRO system Money Disparity Causes Line Move (55% ATS since 2005).
Sharps hit St. Bonaventure twice at +6, triggering a pair of steam and reverse lien moves. We haven’t seen a single conflicting play (or Davidson buyback).
LSU @ Florida
7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Florida (stayed at a pick’em)
Sharps and squares all over this SEC matchup, but will be rooting for opposite sides.
In the most heavily bet game of the night, 10th ranked LSU (24-5) travels to the Swamp to face unranked Florida (17-12). Casual bettors take one look at the win-loss records (combined with the peculiar spread) and say Tigers all day. But wiseguys don’t care about records.
This game opened at a true pick’em. Currently, 67% of bets are taking LSU to win the game, but it only accounts for 56% of dollars– indicating predominantly Average Joe support.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed wiseguys get down hard on Florida twice at +1 and twice more at a pick’em. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move on LSU.
Instead of betting Florida at a pick’em (with possibly higher juice), wiseguys might instead be eyeing the moneyline, as the Gators fit the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Moneyline Home Teams (66.5%, +111.34 units since 2005).
Ohio State @ Northwestern
9 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
Sharp angle: Northwestern (moved from +1 to -1)
Who bets on a team who has lost 10 straight games? Sharps, that’s who.
Ohio State (18-11) enters this game with the far superior record (Northwestern 12-17). But wiseguys know that picking the team with the better record isn’t a foolproof strategy. If it was, Average Joes would all be millionaires.
This Big Ten grudge match opened with the Buckeyes listed as a 1-point road favorite. However, despite getting nearly 60% of bets, OSU has completely flipped from a 1-point favorite to a 1-point dog. Some books are even showing the line at Northwestern -1.5.
Wiseguys hammered NW twice at +1 and then doubled down on NW at -1, triggering a trio of steam and reverse line moves.
One reason sharps like Northwestern in this one: Ohio State star sophomore Kaleb Wesson will miss this game due to suspension. He averages 14.6 PPG, and the Buckeyes lost by 35 points to Purdue without Wesson on Saturday.