CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Michigan-Indiana, Butler-Creighton Friday Night
Sandra Dukes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Romeo Langford
- Wiseguys are betting two college basketball games on Friday night, headlined by Michigan-Indiana (6:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1).
- Sharps are also getting down on Butler-Creighton (8:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting both games.
Wiseguys posted their second straight 2-1 night on Thursday, cashing the Monmouth-Canisius Over and Cal State Fullerton spread without much of a sweat.
With a small six-game Friday night slate, sharps will look to stay disciplined and extend their hot streak to three consecutive days.
After analyzing tonight’s college basketball action using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve pinpointed two games drawing sharp action, with one tipping off at 6:30 p.m. ET and the other at 8:30 p.m.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
>> All odds, percentages and signals as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets.
Michigan @ Indiana
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Indiana (moved from +4.5 to +4)
We’re seeing a sharp bettor’s dream in this Big Ten conference showdown.
On paper, this looks like a Michigan lock. The Wolverines are 18-1 and ranked fifth in the country, while Indiana (12-7) has lost five straight.
Michigan opened as a 3.5-point road favorite. Heavy public betting (80% of bets) pushed the lined up to -4.5. That’s when sharps got down hard on the Hoosiers at an inflated +4.5, dropping the line back down to +4.
Essentially we are seeing a “line freeze” with the line barely budging despite massive public support.
This is also the most heavily bet and most lopsided game of the night, making Indiana the top “Fade The Public” play of the day.
Butler @ Creighton
8:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 156 to 154.5)
Sweating an under is like pulling teeth. No one wants to root for a boring, low-scoring game littered with bricks, blocked shots and shot clock violations. However, wiseguys love unders because they know the public is biased toward overs, providing increased value to go the other way.
Take, for instance, this Big East over/under.
The total opened at a high 156. Currently, 75% of bets are taking the over, making it the most lopsided over/under play of the day. Why? Because Creighton is one of the highest-scoring teams in the country (83.89 ppg).
However, despite this heavy public support, the total has fallen to 154.5.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed four separate steam and reverse line moves on the under, without a single conflicting over play (or buyback).