CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting SMU-Houston, 2 Other Thursday Games
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Thursday, headlined by SMU-Houston (9 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Sharps are also getting down on Temple-Connecticut (7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network) and Troy-Appalachian State (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Sports betting isn’t just about picking winners. It’s also about timing and getting the best number. Last night was a perfect example. Sharps won Northwestern and lost St. Bonaventure.
To finish the night in Green Dot City, they needed Florida (opened at a pick’em, touched +1, closed at -1) to come through against LSU. The Gators lost by one point in overtime. Wiseguys who pounced on the +1 when it was available pushed while pick’em and -1 bettors lost.
After analyzing Thursday’s massive 52-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Temple @ Connecticut
7 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 145 to 140.5)
We’ve seen heavy action from pro and recreational bettors on this over/under, driving some of the biggest line movement on the board.
The total opened at 145. Currently 66% of bets and more than 90% of dollars are taking the under. This created big liability for the sportsbooks, forcing the total to plummet all the way down to 140.5.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve noticed five separate steam and reverse line moves on the under. Wiseguys hammered the Under 145 twice as soon as it was available, then came back and hit the Under 144, Under 141.5 and Under 141.
The fact that sharps kept hitting the under despite the line getting worse indicates supreme confidence in a lower-scoring game.
Troy @ Appalachian State
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 154 to 153)
This obscure Sun Belt matchup is being completely overlooked by the public, but not the Goodfellas.
The over/under opened at 154. Currently 60% of bets and 90% of dollars are coming down on the Under. On the surface, this looks like both a public and sharp play.
However, we’ve tracked only 383 bets on the game. Simply put, there is no public action here. It’s all wiseguy money from pro players with an edge.
Wiseguys steamed the Under 154, causing it to drop to 153. We haven’t seen any conflicting moves (or over buyback).
This under also matches the top Bet Labs PRO system Under with Good Over Teams (56.2% since 2005).
SMU @ Houston
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: SMU (moved from +14 to +12.5)
Pro bettors are fearless. It doesn’t matter how disgusting a play looks on the surface. If sharps have identified an edge and see value, they won’t hesitate to get down.
This matchup is a perfect example. It’s the epitome of a wiseguy play.
Houston is 27-2, ranked No. 12 and enjoys home-court advantage against lowly SMU (13-15). It doesn’t matter what the spread is. Pound Houston, right?
The Cougars opened as 14-point favorites. Nearly 80% of bets are laying the points, making Houston one of the most lopsided public plays of the night. However, despite this overwhelming support, the line has moved from HOU -14 to -12.5.
This makes no sense. Why would the oddsmakers move the line to make it easier for Average Joes to cover? Because they got hit by smart SMU money from respected players.