Maryland-Michigan Betting Guide: Prime Rebound Spot for Wolverines?

Maryland-Michigan Betting Guide: Prime Rebound Spot for Wolverines? article feature image

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jordan Poole an Bruno Fernando

Maryland-Michigan Betting Odds

  • Odds: Michigan -7
  • Total: 129
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX

>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and win probabilities on your bets.

Coming off a road loss to Penn State, Michigan will look to exact revenge at home on Maryland.

The Terps are just 3-3 in their last six Big Ten games, but upset Purdue as a short home underdog.

Market Moves for Maryland-Michigan

Michigan opened -6 and was bet up to -7 overnight. Our Sports Insights Line Predictor says there’s an 82% chance the Wolverines will move to -7.5 on Saturday morning. — Steve Petrella

Trends to Know for Michigan-Maryland

Since Feb. 7, 2017, Michigan is an incredible 33-1 (97.1%) straight-up at home, the best home winning percentage in the country in that span.

Michigan enters Saturday having won 21 straight home games. While the head coach of Michigan, John Beilein has dominated conference opponents at home, going 62-42-2 (59.6%) against the spread, including 12-3-1 (80%) ATS over the last two seasons. — Evan Abrams

Michigan is coming off a loss to Penn State in State College before its showdown Saturday against Maryland. The last time Michigan dropped consecutive games straight-up was all the way back on Feb. 4, 2017. Since then, Michigan has won thirteen consecutive games straight-up after a loss, going 9-2 against the spread in lined games. — Evan Abrams

In Mark Turgeon’s career as a head coach, his teams are 9-24 straight up and 13-19-1 ATS in matchups of Top 25 teams, including 3-17 straight up and 5-14-1 ATS when playing on the road or a neutral site. — John Ewing

When Maryland Has the Ball

The Wolverines’ opponents have manufactured the 12th-longest average possession length (18.6 seconds) in the country because of their stingy defense, but the Terps’ prowess for playing inside-out is set up well to combat it.

Maryland should have success running its action via the low-post — similar to how Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ torched Michigan in their two meetings (22 points per game and 51.2% from the field). The Wolverines are yielding the highest 2-point scoring rate (59.9%) across Division I, and the Terrapins’ highest scoring rate (50.3%) comes from that vicinity, guided by Bruno Fernando (14.6 ppg) and Jalen Smith (12.0 ppg).

On top of that, Mark Turgeon’s bunch owns a slight height advantage over Michigan while generating the 28th-highest offensive rebounding rate (34.4%). John Beilein’s unit will struggle to keep the Terps from generating second-chance opportunities. — Eli Hershkovich

When Michigan Has the Ball

What happened to Michigan’s 3-point shooting? The Wolverines are only shooting 32.5% from beyond the arc in Big Ten conference play. This is a team that shot 50% (24 of 48) in early season wins over North Carolina and Purdue. Ignas Brazdeikis (37.9%), Jordan Poole (38.8%), and Isaiah Livers (43.8%) need to regain their efficiency against a Maryland defense that ranks 66th nationally in defending the 3-pointer.

Michigan should not be worried about turnovers, since Maryland’s defense ranks last in turnovers forced and steals within conference play. The Wolverines also need to battle on the offensive boards, which will be a challenge since Maryland is first among Big Ten teams in limiting offensive rebounds. Those second-chance opportunities are vital against a Terrapins’ defense that ranks 15th in the country in defending the 2-pointer.

While the Wolverines don’t hurt themselves with turnovers, they do struggle at the free throw line. Michigan ranks 233rd nationally with a 68.9% team FT percentage. Within conference play, however, they rank fourth at 74.4% per game.

The offensive game plan for Michigan is simple: get high-percentage shots, improve from 3P, and make foul shots. If they do those three things, the Wolverines have a great chance to cover. — Mike Randle

Barkley: Why The Over/Under Has My Attention

Despite the spread being pretty much spot on, I do find the total interesting, especially when breaking down just the splits from the teams in conference play. These are teams that play an incredibly short rotation, and incredibly slow tempo (11th and 12th in the conference). Michigan does not turn the ball over, and Maryland doesn’t force any, and I think it’s quite possible you see very little transition play here. If the game isn’t up-and-down whatsoever, Michigan’s defense should dictate how this game is played.

Despite my total projection being very close to the current 129, I do think there may be a little bit of value in the under still, because the style of these two teams matching up is something I can’t really capture properly. It may even even slower and more defensive-minded than my numbers expect. — Ken Barkley

Stuckey: My Betting Angles for Maryland-Michigan

From a purely situational perspective, this spot heavily favors Michigan. The Wolverines are coming off a horrid loss to lowly Penn State, while Maryland used an explosive second half to pick up a huge (and emotional) home win over Purdue.

It might be tough for the Baby Terps to bring their A-game for this one given their inexperience (Maryland ranks 351st out of 353 D1 teams in experience). That said, the Terps have done things all season that defies their inexperience: win on the road and win close games.

The biggest mismatch in this game will be turnovers. Michigan just doesn’t give the ball up, as mentioned above. The Maryland offense has also had major issues of its own taking care of the rock, turning it over in more than 20% of its possessions in conference play (13th in Big Ten). That’s not a recipe for success on the road against a rock solid Michigan defense. Michigan should get a handful of extra possessions as a result.

However, if Michigan has an off shooting night, Maryland is going to grab every defensive rebound, where it thrives (first in defensive rebounding in conference play) and Michigan does not worry too much about the offensive glass.

Ultimately, this spot screams Michigan, but Maryland’s rebounding prowess could keep it around. It’s also worth noting that Michigan really struggles from the line as a team (a strength of Maryland), which could swing a cover given the line — although the Wolverines have shot better from the stripe since the start of Big Ten play. — Stuckey