Tuesday’s College Basketball Betting: Duke-Virginia Tech, San Diego State-Utah State
Mark Konezy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: RJ Barrett
Following a smaller college hoops card on Monday, eight ranked teams are in action on Tuesday. Among them, No. 3 Duke travels to No. 20 Virginia Tech before unranked Utah State faces San Diego State in a critical Mountain West clash.
Where’s the value in these two games? Let’s break them down.
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Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies Betting Odds
- Spread: Duke -4.5
- Over/Under: 146.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
The Blue Devils (15-11 ATS) snapped a three-game losing skid ATS after snagging a 10-point outright win at Syracuse on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Hokies (13-12-1 ATS) broke a five-game coverless streak with a victory at Notre Dame the same day.
Mike Krzyzewski’s unit will be suiting up in its fourth contest over the past 10 days, with the do-it-all Zion Williamson (knee) set to miss his second straight game.
Believe it or not, Duke will miss Williamson more on the defensive end in this one, given Virginia Tech generating the ACC’s second-highest two-point clip (51.9%) in league play.
To make matters worse, the Blue Devils have yielded the seventh-highest scoring rate (59.2%) from inside the arc — and much of that is with his shot-blocking prowess in the lineup.
The Hokies have run plenty of their offense through the 6-foot-10 Kerry Blackshear (14.6 points per game) since losing point guard Justin Robinson (foot), handing them a sound opportunity to attack Duke’s biggest weakness. The Blue Devils’ Javin DeLaurier is a fine defensive big, but expect Blackshear’s craftiness to open things up for the ACC’s fourth-highest perimeter scoring rate (37.2%).
At the other end, Duke sophomore Alex O’Connell saved his team at Syracuse by shooting 5 of 8 from behind the arc. But its 329th-ranked 3-point shooting (30.6%) will regress back to its norm in Blacksburg, where it’s lost their past two meetings straight-up. That should also allow Virginia Tech to play at a slower pace, as it’ll control the glass with Duke’s struggles in the rebounding department.
Plus, the Blue Devils won’t be able to pin their stud freshman R.J. Barrett (23.2 points per game) around the free-throw line — like they did against the Orange — vs. the Hokies’ ball pressure.
I’d lean towards the underdog when the line shoots up a bit more, as 97% of the money is on Duke as of Tuesday morning, according to our pubic betting data.
THE PICK: Virginia Tech +4.5
San Diego State Aztecs at Utah State Aggies
- Spread: Utah State -9
- Over/Under: 137.5
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS Sports Network
The Aggies (13-12 ATS) have covered in each of their past three affairs while winning 11 of their past 12 games outright. The Aztecs (14-11 ATS) have done the same in four of their past five games, along with notching outright victories in eight of their past nine.
Utah State’s revenge-game spot is set after its lone straight-up loss during this stretch came at San Diego State on Feb. 9. Nevertheless, the line is just too high for an Aztecs’ defense that has the second-rated AdjD (96.6 opponents’ points per possession) in Mountain West play.
In their last meeting, Brian Dutcher’s bunch wasn’t able disrupt the Aggies’ 89th-ranked 3-point shooting clip (36.8%), as they shot 41.7% from behind the perimeter. But it contained the 6-foot-11 Neemias Queta (11.6 ppg) to a mere six points via 3 of 9 shooting from inside the arc.
Fellow freshman Nathan Mensah was crucial in that effort, and the 6-foot-10 big is in prime position to do it again — if he stays out of foul trouble.
These two teams are about even in size, yet San Diego State won the battle on the glass (38-35) in their last go-around, thanks to 14 offensive rebounds. Mensah and the 6-foot-10 Jalen McDaniels (16.9 ppg) should play a pivotal role in doing so once again, manufacturing the highest offensive rebounding rate (30.9%) in MW play.
Utah State has also been susceptible to foul trouble, as opponents have tallied the 66th-highest scoring rate from the line (20.9%) in Division I. SDSU’s highest scoring percentage (20.4%) stems from that vicinity, and point guard Devin Watson (16.3 ppg) produced 14 free-throw attempts in their most recent meeting.
THE PICK: San Diego State +9