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Vermont Is Largest Favorite We’ve Ever Tracked In America East

Feb 13, 2019 9:52 AM EST
Credit:

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Vermont head coach John Becker.

  • Vermont is favored by 26 points over New Hampshire on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN3), the largest favorite we've tracked in America East history.
  • America East favorites of -15 or higher have gone just 4-11 against the spread.
  • This is also just the 38th time we've tracked an unranked favorite of -25 or higher against a conference opponent, with the previous 37 going 17-19-1 ATS.

Usually, when you lay more than 25 points in a college basketball team, you’re betting on Duke, Kentucky, Virginia or the like. But Vermont? I don’t think so.

Today, Vermont is a 26-point favorite, the first time we’ve tracked a line that high for any America East team. The Catamounts opened at -27 vs. New Hampshire and have already fallen a point, but are still quite clear of the previous conference record of -23.5.

Vermont has become somewhat of a New England basketball powerhouse. Sure, it’s never going to sniff the likes of the country’s best, but it can absolutely put a toasting on some of the regional schools.

The worst record the Catamounts have had in conference play this decade is 11-5, while they’ve also posted two seasons of 15-1 and one 16-0. This year they are 9-1 so far, while their opponent is just 1-9 in the conference and 3-20 overall.

Huge America East favorites haven’t fared well, going just 4-11 against the spread when favored by at least 15 points with a couple of straight-up upsets included, per Bet Labs.

As a whole, favorites of 25 points or more have gone 396-358-11 (52.5%) in both the regular and postseason combined. Those teams that are not in the Top 25 are 151-132-3 (53.4%) ATS, though this particular spot Vermont is in is rather rare.

This is just the 38th unranked favorite of 25-plus points in a conference game, with the others going 17-19-1 ATS.

In the very early going, the large majority of bettors, nearly 80%, are taking New Hampshire plus the points. They don’t think a basketball team that close to Canada can possibly cover such a large spread. We shall see…

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