Inside some of the key early line moves for Week 13 of the CFB season
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For more on Week 13 of the 2017 college football season, check out Collin Wilson’s Sunday Morning Coffee column.
There has already been significant early action on a number of lines for Week 13 of the college football season. The Action Network examines some of the biggest moves.
Matchup to watch
The Iron Bowl look ahead line hovered around Auburn +10.5 for multiple weeks leading up to the Auburn-Georgia game. It was mentioned on the Degen and Juice podcast with Stuckey and Collin that War Eagle would have plenty of chances to lower that line leading up to Week 13. After the Auburn win against Georgia, that look ahead line moved to Alabama -3.5 and settled at -4/4.5 today. Two-thirds of the early action is on Alabama.
The Crimson Tide has injuries all over the roster, especially in the linebacker and offensive line units. This is reflected in the advanced numbers, as Alabama’s offensive line ranks 105th in adjusted sack rate. They’ll have to hold up against an Auburn defensive line that is ranked fourth in sack rate, so the Tigers should get to Jalen Hurts early and often. On the other side of the ball, Alabama is 96th defensively in rushing power success rate, while Auburn’s rushing attack ranks 12th in power success rate. (Power success rate is defined as the percentage of third- and fourth-and-short runs that gain a first down or touchdown.)
Other Week 13 notes
· Miami goes to Pitt in an early Friday game they can afford to lose. A win in next week’s ACC Championship Game will surely secure a spot in the College Football playoff. Pitt has had issues in this series, going 1-10 straight up in the past 11 games. The early money is heavy on Miami, with a stable line of -14
· If Akron beats Kent on Tuesday (they’re 15-point favorites), Ohio will have nothing to play for against Buffalo. Ohio opened as five-point favorites and currently sits at three. Buffalo has five wins and is playing for a possible bowl game.
· There has been nothing but early money on Central Florida, who opened -9 and is currently at -11.5. They look to continue their undefeated season against one-loss South Florida.
· Michigan-Ohio State line opened at 13 early today. Others countered with Ohio State -10. All books have settled at 11/11.5, with plenty of the tickets and dollars coming on the Buckeyes. If there is one place Michigan can beat Ohio State, it’s in the passing game. Ohio State ranks 96th in passing downs explosiveness, while the Michigan defense ranks eighth in sack rate on passing downs.
· After getting as high as 11 in early action, Washington State is currently +9.5 in the Apple Cup against Washington. The Cougars are playing for the Pac-12 North, while the Huskies are looking to ruin their rival’s championship run. The action is all on the Cougars early in a series they have only won once in the past eight years.
· After opening as a pick’em, all the action is on Notre Dame against Stanford. Stanford is a +2.5 dog in a game that kicks off at the same time as the Apple Cup. Stanford will play in the Pac-12 Championship Game if Washington State loses. Notre Dame, meanwhile, will look to seal up a trip to a New Year’s Six bowl. If Bryce Love is healthy, he should have a field day against an Irish rush defense that ranks 90th in explosiveness allowed.