Boise State 2018 Betting Preview: Broncos Will Be Good, But Overvalued

Boise State 2018 Betting Odds

• To win the National Championship: +35000
• To win the Mountain West: -170
• To win the Mountain Division: -310
• To make the College Football Playoff: +5000
• Win Total: 10 (over +105, under -125)

Always shop for the best line.

Boise State 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds

The Action Network Projected Wins: 8.9

Bet To Watch

Boise State Under 10 Wins (-125)

The big story in Boise this season isn't whether the Broncos can win the Mountain West — it's if they can beat Power 5 schools. The Broncos proved they can play above the Group of 5 with a 38-28 victory over Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl last season.

Boise State's strength is its defense. The Broncos ranked eighth in preventing explosiveness last year and sixth in adjusted sack rate. Most of that unit returns, as they rank ninth in returning production.

This will be Brett Rypien's final season under center for the Broncos, and he'll be protected by an offensive line that features five players that started a game last season. Rypien was excellent over the final eight games of 2017 and will look to carry that momentum into 2018.

He will also have plenty of new weapons to go with some returning skill players, as Boise's recruiting pipeline is stronger than some Power 5 teams.

But! There's always a but. I project Boise State to win the Mountain Division and face Fresno State for the conference title, but the -170 price has no value. Fresno had no issues with Boise in 2017 (the teams split two games), and the Broncos might not be favorites if the title game is played in Fresno.

A win total of 10 is higher than my projection, which calls for 8.9. While I love this Boise defense, a road trip to Oklahoma State could prove too much coupled with a tough Mountain West schedule that includes Wyoming, Utah State, Fresno State and San Diego State. Thus, I like the under 10 wins (-125).

What else you need to know about Boise State

Is there an advantage to the blue turf? Nope. Boise is 45-5 straight-up at home, but only 17-33 ATS since 2010. There may be more to the turf replacement than it just being "old."

More College Football Betting Previews

Click here for team previews on all 130 FBS schools.