Wilson: Projecting Week 13 College Football Spreads, and Games I Want to Bet Sunday

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 13's college football matchups.

These numbers are based off my college football betting Power Ratings, which you can find here.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I'll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.

College Football Week 13 Point Spread Projections

Numbers I'm Looking For

Coastal Carolina at South Alabama

Projected Spread: South Alabama +5
Number I Want: Coastal Carolina -3 or better

The Chants need one more victory to become bowl eligible against a South Alabama team that will not be playing in the postseason. There is an issue with the number of Sun Belt teams that have qualified for a bowl, giving extra motivation to Coastal Carolina that this could be the last game of the year. This may be alleviated in 2020 when Myrtle Beach will be the site of a new bowl that includes the Sun Belt.

Arizona State at Arizona

Projected Spread: Arizona +2
Number I Want: Arizona pk or better

With Arizona State losing to Oregon in Week 12, its hopes for a Pac-12 South title are over. Utah beat Colorado to finish conference play at 6-3, while the Sun Devils are 4-4 heading into the 'duel in the desert'.

The battle for the Territorial Cup may have a deflated Arizona State, which has six wins, against an Arizona team that needs another victory for bowl eligibility.

SMU at Tulsa

Projected Spread: Tulsa pk
Number I Want: SMU pk or better

Bowl motivation will be high for first year coach Sonny Dykes as he takes a five-win Mustangs team to Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have one FBS win on the season, as head coach Philip Montgomery's time in T-Town may be up.

There is a major advantage for SMU in the explosiveness department against Tulsa. The Mustangs are 11th in offensive IsoPPP prior to Week 12, while the Golden Hurricane rank 119th in the same category.

Situational Edges I'm Eyeing

• There are plenty of teams with five wins playing teams that won't make bowls in Week 13. That includes Miami of Ohio hosting Ball State, Tulane hosting Navy, Wyoming at New Mexico, Southern Miss at UTEP and Florida Atlantic hosting Charlotte.
• Other five win teams against teams that have already qualified for a bowl include Kansas State at Iowa State, Colorado at California, TCU hosting Oklahoma State, Florida State hosting Florida, Wake Forest at Duke, Maryland at Penn State, Minnesota at Wisconsin and USC hosting Notre Dame.
• Speaking of Florida State, the Seminoles have a 36-year bowl streak that may be snapped.
• Buffalo, Virginia, Arizona State, Texas Tech, Utah State, Syracuse, Georgia Southern, Pittsburgh, UAB, Arkansas, NC State, Stanford and Nevada are all on back-to back travel. 
• Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan are both off a bye week.

A Few Other Week 13 Notes

• Quarterback D'Eriq King was injured for Houston and will not return for the remainder of the season.

• Oklahoma State running back Justice Hill was downgraded to out for the West Virginia game.
• Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey left the Notre Dame game with a lower back injury.