Kentucky 2018 Betting Preview: Inexperience at QB Should Sink Wildcats

Aug 20, 2018 05:18 PM EDT
Credit:

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mark Stoops

Kentucky 2018 Betting Odds

  • To win the National Title: +200000
  • To win the SEC: +30000
  • To win the SEC East: +4500
  • Win Total: 5.5 (over -125, under -105)

Always shop for the best line.


Kentucky 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds

The Action Network Projected Wins: 5.3

Bet To Watch

Kentucky Under 5.5 wins (-105)

Kentucky ranks 50th overall in returning production, but a closer look reveals a big discrepancy on offense and defense.

The Wildcats defense should be solid since it was good last year and ranks seventh in defense returning production. Kentucky ranked fourth in passing downs explosiveness, 26th in field position and 34th in adjusted sack rate in 2017.

The other side of the ball is a different story.

None of the quarterbacks competing for the starting gig have played a down for the Wildcats, and there is no front-runner between Gunnar Hoak and Terry Wilson. Kentucky’s offense as a whole ranks 109th in returning production.

Kentucky’s most dynamic player is Benny Snell, but he is dealing with a “minor” calf injury, so keep tabs on that.

I have the Wildcats projected for 5.3 wins and think there is value in backing them to go Under 5.5 wins at -105. They had a Second Order Win Total of 5.2 last season, meaning they played much worse than their 7-6 record suggested.

This year, you can pencil in wins against Central Michigan, Vanderbilt and Murray State, but only three other games will feature spreads under a field goal. The Wildcats will be a big dog in their six other games.

To get to six wins, Kentucky would need to sweep those three and beat South Carolina, Tennessee and Middle Tennessee.

What else you need to know about Kentucky

Per Bet Labs, Kentucky is 4-18 against the spread against Florida and Tennessee since 2007. The Wildcats travel to Gainesville on Sept. 8 and Knoxville on Nov. 10.

More College Football Betting Previews

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