Oregon-Michigan State Betting Guide: Elite Defense vs. Elite QB in Redbox Bowl

Dec 31, 2018 01:58 PM EST

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Herbert and Cody White

2018 Redbox Bowl Betting Odds: Oregon-Michigan State

  • Odds: Oregon -2.5
  • Over/Under: 48
  • Date: Monday, Dec. 31
  • Location: Santa Clara, Calif.
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX

>> All odds as of Sunday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets

Regardless of what happens in the Redbox Bowl, Oregon is thrilled to have quarterback Justin Herbert returning for the 2019 season. He was expected to be the first quarterback off the board in the NFL Draft.

Monday, he’ll face a stingy Michigan State defense that’s caused problems for the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks all season.

Odds Moves for Oregon-Michigan State

By Danny Donahue

Oregon has been the more popular side in the Redbox Bowl, and the overall line movement has reflected that, as the Ducks have gone from -1.5 to -2.5. The latest move, however, has come in the direction of Michigan State, which has fallen from +3 to +2.5 behind 50% of dollars on just 42% of bets.

The total has yet to move from its opener of 48 despite 79% of money hitting the under. That majority has come from just 47% of bets.

Trends to Know

By Evan Abrams

— Michigan State was a disappointing 4-8 against the spread in the regular season, which helps explain why the majority of spread tickets are on Oregon. But teams that covered the spread in 33% or less of their games, like the Spartans, have gone 39-27-1 ATS in bowl games since 2005.

— Michigan State has struggled to score all season long and have only seen the end zone a few times in the last three games. Michigan State has scored 14 points or fewer in its last three games entering their bowl game, becoming just the fourth team to do that since 2005. The previous three teams in this spot won and covered the spread, with two of those three teams doing so as an underdog.

— Nobody knows how to shut down a prolific offense quite like Mark D’Antonio. The last time we saw Oregon, the Ducks were throttling their in-state rival, Oregon State, 55-15.

Since D’Antonio arrived in East Lansing in 2007, Michigan State is 31-19-1 ATS (62%) when facing a team that scored 35 points or more in its previous game, covering the spread by 3.4 PPG, profiting bettors 10.5 units.

In this spot, D’Antonio is the most profitable coach in the country, with only Gary Anderson profiting bettors 10 units or more.

Michigan State Defense Stood Tall vs. Good Offenses

By Steve Petrella