Virginia 2018 Betting Preview: JUCO QB Could Create Explosive Offense

Virginia 2018 Betting Preview: JUCO QB Could Create Explosive Offense article feature image

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Juan Thornhill

Virginia 2018 Betting Odds

  • To win the National Title: +250000
  • To win the ACC: +30000
  • To win the ACC Coastal: +4000
  • Win Total: 5 (over +125, under -155)

Always shop for the best line.

Virginia 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds

The Action Network Projected Wins: 5.4

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Virginia Over 5 Wins

Fading Virginia was one of my biggest bowl plays of 2017. The Wahoos ranked 76th in defensive rushing success rate, specifically 113th in stuff rate. Translation — the Virginia defense did not control the line of scrimmage and could not get into the backfield against Navy’s option.

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The key to beating Navy is filling the A-gap with solid outside contain. Virginia turned a trip to the Military Bowl into a recruiting video for Navy football, and UVA will have to be much better against the run if the defense wants to improve in 2018. There aren’t any strong signs pointing to that.

Virginia ranks 106th in offensive returning production, but that might not be a bad thing after it ranked outside the top 100 in efficiency, pass explosiveness and rushing explosiveness. Addition by subtraction, of sorts.

That leads to the biggest offseason news for Virginia — JUCO recruit Bryce Perkins has won the starting quarterback job. Perkins began his career at Arizona State, but left after being asked to switch positions.

What do we know about Perkins? He’s an electric dual-threat quarterback who makes defenses miss tackles.

Bryce Perkins has been doing it all for Arizona Western today #njcaafootball

— NJCAA TV (@NJCAATV) December 3, 2017

Expect plenty of moving pockets, since coach Bronco Mendenhall must replace most of the offensive line production from 2017. Victories over Richmond and Liberty are highly probable, making the Hoos only three wins shy of a push on the season win total over.

Five other games have Virginia favored or within a touchdown dog. Let’s jump aboard the Perkins train for Wahoos over 5 (-110), as half of the teams on the schedule have issues stopping the run.

What else you need to know about Virginia

Game of the Year lines (Richmond +11 and Virginia Tech -17.5) are close to the projections from The Action Network power rankings. A wager against the Hokies may be in order, as they ranked 122nd in defending explosiveness.

Virginia Tech has lost a handful of key contributors to the NFL or due to off-field issues, which could be great news for Virginia +17.5 and its explosive new offense.

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