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Virginia-South Carolina Betting Guide: Cavaliers Have 2 Key Advantages in 2018 Belk Bowl

Dec 29, 2018 11:20 AM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bryce Perkins and Jake Bentley

2018 Belk Bowl Betting Odds: Virginia-South Carolina

  • Odds: South Carolina -5.5
  • Over/Under: 53.5
  • Date: Saturday, Dec. 29
  • Location: Charlotte, N.C.
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC

>> All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets


Don’t sleep on the smaller bowl games on Saturday — a winner on the Belk Bowl is worth as much as a winner on the College Football Playoff.

South Carolina-Virginia has about 20% of the bets that Clemson-Notre Dame does, but we’re diving deep to find betting value.

Odds Movement for South Carolina-Virginia

By Danny Donahue

South Carolina opened just under a touchdown favorite (-6.5), but within a day had dropped to -4. That move came despite a majority of bets hitting the Gamecocks.

Since then, however, South Carolina has found its way back to -5, and even -5.5 at a number of books. Sixty-two percent of bettors, accounting for 58% of dollars, are laying the points with the Gamecocks.

As for the total, bettors are in agreement on the under, and the books have reacted accordingly. Fifty-seven percent of both bets and dollars have hit the under, dropping the number from 55 to 53.5.

SEC Cleans Up In This Spot

By Evan Abrams

Virginia enters the Belk Bowl on a two-game losing streak, dropping its last two games by just three points a piece.

Since 2010, when a team enters its bowl game on at least a two-game losing streak and faces an SEC team, it is 1-8 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), failing to cover by 11.3 PPG.

Mismatch in the Trenches

By Stuckey

The South Carolina defensive line has been decimated by injuries, as the Gamecocks won’t have the services of Javon Kinlaw, D.J. Wonnun, Daniel Fennell and likely Aaron Sterling. As a result, UVA should dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and convert almost every third-and-short on the ground.

Just look at these full-season metric mismatches that don’t even take into account the full impact of the defensive line injuries:

Opportunity Rate

  • UVA offense: 15
  • SC defense: 118

Stuff Rate

  • UVA offense: 14
  • SC defense: 98

Expect UVA to convert on third downs at an extremely high clip, as it did all season, ranking 12th in the nation at 47.4%.

Who’s More Motivated?

By Stuckey

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