Finding Betting Value in the 2018 NHL All-Star Game

Finding Betting Value in the 2018 NHL All-Star Game article feature image
Credit:

Kelvin Kuo, USA Today

Betting on the NHL All-Star game is like betting on MLB spring training games. It may not be advisable, but it's totally understandable. We're not in the business of judging you for tossing your hard-earned money on a meaningless hockey game. That doesn't mean we can't try and break this sucker down.

After years of disinterest in the All-Star game, the NHL made the decision two years ago to change the format to one that features four teams, one from each division, in a 3-on-3 tournament.  Each game will consist of two 10-minute periods.

Last year, the first round of the tournament saw a ton of goals and very little defense, with the pre-tournament favorite Metropolitan Divison defeating the Atlantic Divison, 10-6, and the Pacific Division torching the Central, 10-3. Team Metro and Team Pacific played a much closer game in the final — I'm sure the $1 million prize had nothing to do with it — with the Metropolitans coming out on top, 4-3.

This season the Atlantic Division (+210, implied probability of 32.26%) comes into the weekend as the favorites to win the prize, with the Pacific (+240, 29.41%) and Central (+240, 29.41%) tied for second. The Metro (+255, 28.17 percent) pulls up the rear because they will meet the Atlantic Division in the first round.

So let's make like Owen Nolan and try to call this thing.

The Pacific Division +240

The game's most dynamic player, Connor McDavid, will run the show for the Pacific with Johnny Gaudreau. With all the space in 3-on-3, it's a good bet that the two "Battle of Alberta" rivals will put on a show when they are together.

After a down year in 2016-17, Anze Kopitar is once again one of the game's best two-way centers and will make life hard on whoever he's matched up against. The dark horse on Team Pacific is Rickard Rakell. The Ducks' talisman is a joy to watch when he has the puck on his stick and has a tremendous shot.

On the blueline, the Pacific Division will rotate Brent Burns, Drew Doughty and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  Of the three, Doughty would be considered as the 'shutdown' guy while Burns and Ekman-Larsson excel at transporting the puck and jumping in offensively.

It does feel like the Pacific may be a little top heavy. Sure, Brock Boeser is having a splendid year as a rookie and James Neal is a tremendous pure goal scorer but I think they will have a tough time keeping pace with the Central Division.

The Central Division +240

It's hard not to look at the Central Division All-Star roster and not just nod and say, 'oh damn, this team looks like fun.'

At the top, Patrick Kane and Tyler Seguin are two of the best open ice players in the league and are basically built for this type of hockey. And while Kane and Seguin may be the flashiest players on this roster, it is Nathan MacKinnon who will probably wreak the most havoc. MacKinnon is a powerhouse with rockets attached to his skates. When he gets going north-to-south, it's nearly impossible to stop him. Look, it's an All-Star Game so who knows if there's any semblance of a gameplan, but if Seguin and Kane play together, it will likely mean MacKinnon will play with Blake Wheeler — another brilliant skater who can move the puck as well as anyone in the league.

Eric Staal and Brayden Schenn round out the forwards and give Team Central something different from their top two 'lines.' Staal will most likely draw the tough defensive assignment while Schenn's got one of the deadliest wrist shots in the game.

Of the four teams, the Central Division probably boasts the best 3-on-3 defense. Alex Pietrangelo is a two-way stud, P.K. Subban is a smooth skater with incredible offensive flair and John Klingberg who just happens to have more points than any other defensemen in the league.

There's a lot to like here but I think the Central will ultimately fall in the finals. However,  taking the Central at -110 to beat the Pacific in the opening round

The Metropolitan Division +255

Of all the rosters, the Metropolitan may have the most household names on it, but at the same time it feels like they are the team that will struggle the most.

That's because even with stars like Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and John Tavares the Metropolitan lacks the speed and flash that the Central and Atlantic Division teams have. Those three aforementioned stars, along with Claude Giroux and Josh Bailey, are fabulous players but this team just doesn't feel like it is made for this back-and-forth style of play.

Even on defense, the Metro doesn't seem to stack up. Kris Letang, Zach Werenski and Noah Hanifin are standouts but there just feels like something is missing here.

The Atlantic Division +210 

On paper, it is hard to argue that the Atlantic Division All-Stars are the rightful favorites to win the 3-on-3 tournament. Obviously every roster is going to be dripping with talent, but this team is chock-full of showstoppers starting with a pair of hometowners, NHL points leader Nikita Kucherov and Lightning captain Steven Stamkos.

Behind them, Auston Matthews and Sasha Barkov are incredibly hard to knock off the puck and Jack Eichel is an extraordinary playmaker. The Atlantic even has a bit of a shutdown line with Brad Marchand and Brayden Point. On the back-end, there's some dude named Erik Karlsson, who along with puck-mover Mike Green, makes up Team Atlantic's defense.

Even though goaltending is impossible to quantify in a game that will feature rush after rush, the Atlantic Division has the best on-paper goalie combination of the four teams. Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy may be well on his way to a Vezina Trophy in his first year as a starter and Montreal's Carey Price is an old hat in the Midwinter Classic.

It's hard to imagine the other teams matching the firepower the Atlantic possesses. It may be a chalk move, but just try talking yourself out of taking a punt on this team.

Most Valuable Player Prop:

Last year, just as the prophecies foretold, it was power forward Wayne Simmonds who took home the All-Star Game MVP. All this talk about speed, space and creativity and it was the guy who parks his rear-end in front of the net for a living who took home top honors. That just goes to show you what a crapshoot this really is.

This year, McDavid is the favorite to be tabbed as MVP at +720. Most likely, the MVP is going to come from the winning team, so a shot on either of the hometown guys like Stamkos or Kucherov doesn't seem a bad bet. But for me, there is a better value play a little further down the board.

Nathan MacKinnon is the league's hottest player and over the past few weeks has seen his stock surge to new heights. The former first overall pick is a dynamic skater and has enough flash to do something special at Amway Arena on Sunday.


All odds provided by Sports Interaction at 12 am on 1/27.

Photo: Kelvin Kuo, USA Today Sports

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