Five NHL Prop Bets for Thursday: Landeskog Over/Under 2.5 Total Shots on Goal?
Thursday night features a full slate of NHL action, with 10 games starting at 7 p.m. ET or later. That means lots of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are five props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00, 8:00, and 9:00 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Islanders C John Tavares under 3.0 shots on goal (-120 at Bovada)
7:00 p.m. ET
Tavares has averaged 3.08 and 3.1 shots on goal over the past month and year, respectively, good enough for 95th percentile in both categories. That said, the matchup couldn’t be much worse against Tampa Bay, which is allowing the third-lowest Corsi on the slate over the past month, so the Islanders (unsurprisingly) own a bottom-four Expected Corsi For on the slate. They are also in the bottom half of offensive shots attempted, so the under seems reasonable today, as Tavares has registered fewer than three shots on goal in three of his past five games.
Islanders G Christopher Gibson over 30.5 total saves (-115 at Bovada)
7:00 p.m. ET
Tavares’ teammate Gibson has been an AHL staple over the past five seasons and should have his hands full with a newly healthy Tampa Bay offense. Gibson trails only Alexander Georgiev with his 35.15 Save Prediction in our Models, and even on the road the Lightning own the second-highest Expected Corsi for on the slate. This line is far less aggressive than it probably should be, so the clear lean here is toward the over.
Flyers W Jakub Voracek over 2.5 shots on goal (-125 at Bovada)
7:00 p.m. ET
We discussed Voracek today on Inside the Lab, and the Rangers provide perhaps the most favorable matchup in the entire league for shots on goal props (99th percentile in shot attempts allowed). Voracek has averaged 2.71 shots per game over the past month, which is actually slightly lower than his long-term average of 2.85, so this looks like a prime opportunity to attack a weak line in a pristine matchup.
Predators G Pekka Rinne over 29.5 total saves (-120 at Bovada)
8:00 p.m. ET
The Predators are one of the top defensive teams in the league, holding teams to just an impressive 1.6 goals per game over the past month, but the 29.5 save line seems low against one of the league’s highest shot-volume teams, especially when it is getting back its highest-volume shooter in Auston Matthews. Our Save Prediction metric agrees, as we currently have Rinne pegged for 34.17 saves tonight.
Note: Rinne is currently expected to start but has not been confirmed. Keep an eye on our Starting Goalies page for further updates on his status.
Avalanche W Gabriel Landeskog under 2.5 shots on goal (-135 at Bovada)
9:00 p.m. ET
Over the past year Landeskog has notably averaged 2.34 shots per game (84th percentile), but of all the players listed at Bovada he is the lowest-volume shooter over the past month, averaging only 1.79 shots per game (65th percentile). The under could provide a solid matchup-based opportunity at the very least. As a team, the Avalanche own our lowest Expected Corsi For today and are facing a Kings squad that has allowed the fifth-fewest shot attempts over the past year of any team on the slate.
Pictured above: Gabriel Landeskog