Avalanche vs. Golden Knights NHL Odds & Picks: Bet Vegas to Pick Up a Win (Monday, May 10)
- The Avalanche are a short favorite over the Golden Knights on Monday night as Vegas tries to clinch the Presidents' Trophy, given to the NHL team with the most regular season points.
- The Knights boast an outstanding goaltending duo and have the edge there over Colorado no matter who is in net.
- Get our Knights vs. Avalanche pick and preview below.
Avalanche vs. Knights Odds
The Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche have been two of the best teams all year and despite both being firmly locked into the playoffs, they still have something to play for as the season ends.
If the Golden Knights beat the Avalanche on Monday, they will clinch the West Division and the Presidents' Trophy, given to the team with the most regular season points.
Colorado has the third-best record in the league and is still in contention for both as well, and also has home-ice advantage in the first round to play for.
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche entered the season as the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year. They have gone 36-13-4 and have three games remaining in the regular season.
The Avalanche have been the best offense in the league all season, leading the NHL with 3.47 goals per game. At 59.33% Colorado has the highest xGF% in the league and also rank first with a 57.84 High Danger Chance percentage.
Colorado has a top 10 power play and penalty kill and is one of the fastest teams in the league. The strength of the Avs is the backend, featuring a defensive group filled with young, skilled puck-moving defenseman. Cale Maker, Sam Girard and Devon Toews are all elite skaters and have at least 28 points. Maker is sixth among defenseman with 43 points and Toews has the second most High Danger Scoring Chances among blue liners.
Goaltender Philipp Grubauer is back from the COVID-19 list and has been great this year with a 28-9-1 record and 2.03 goals against average and .919 save percentage.
The Avalanche could be a little shorthanded Monday night. They are missing Brandon Saad, Matt Calvert, Jacob MacDonald, Bowen Byram and Girard to injury. They could also be without superstar Nathan MacKinnon, who has missed the last two games with a lower-body injury.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.
xG numbers and advanced stats cited from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights will look to clinch the Presidents' Trophy for the first time in franchise history. They'd be the first team to finish with the NHL’s best record within its first four seasons.
One of the most well-balanced teams in the NHL, Vegas ranks third in goals per game and second in goals allowed per game. They sit eighth in HDCF% and ninth in xGF%.
Vegas also has the best penalty kill in the league, killing off the man advantage 86.5% of the time. Their PK success is largely due to the best goaltending tandem in the NHL.
The Golden Knights netminders have both has superb seasons. Marc-Andre Fleury has a 25-10-0 record with a .927 save percentage and 2.04 goals against average. Robin Lehner is 13-3-2 with a .913 save percentage and 2.30 GAA. Fleury sits third in the league with 16.0 goals saved above expected and Lehner ranks 11th with 4.3 GSAx.
After being named the first captain in franchise history, Mark Stone is having the best season in his career with 60 points on 21 goals and 39 assists in 53 games. He is also one of the best defensive forwards in the league and will be tasked with slowing down the Avs elite top line.
Defenseman Shea Theodore is also having his best season and will likely earn Norris Trophy consideration. Theodore has 42 points in 51 games and is third among all defenders with a 66.7% on-ice goals percentage.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Golden Knights are 4-3 against Colorado this season and I like their chances to pick up another win against the shorthanded Avs. Colorado has an elite offense, but Vegas is terrific defensively and has two great goaltenders that give them the advantage in net, regardless of who starts Monday.
Vegas has been rolling and is 8-2 and its last 10 games and has won three straight entering Monday. The Knights have lost just two games in the last 30 days and look to be peaking at the perfect time.
With a chance to win the Presidents' Trophy, the Knights will be highly motivated to clinch it at home in front of their home crowd, which has been over 7,500 fans in the past two games. Vegas has been dominant at home, going 21-4-2 at T-Mobile Arena.
I will back the Knights to lock up the best record in the league in front of their home crowd at a short price on Monday and would back them up to -115.
Pick: Golden Knights ML (-105) | Play up to -115
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