Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jonathan Toews and Alex DeBrincat
- Check out Ken Barkley's first period totals model for Friday, Feb. 22.
- The Blackhawks have been going over first period totals at a crazy clip, but the prices are getting out of control, which has sapped any value.
Yesterday was a fun, profitable day for the model, as all four small edges detected vs. the openers (a small edge being 2-9.9%) were victorious. 4-0! That’s the kind of volatility I like.
When these opening edges win, it’s a little added bonus for me because I think for a lot of people who follow, it’s hard to constantly monitor price shifts throughout the day and keep updating numbers. If you bet vs. the openers, it’s quick and easy, so I’m guessing a lot more people had those, as opposed to the edges that emerged later in the day (Devils under, Canadiens over, etc.) That makes me happy.
If you’re new here, I build a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.
To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.
For more info on my model, check out the story below.
Blackhawks vs. Avalanche
7:35 p.m. ET
Tonight is a small slate, but is marked by the return of the “Kings of the Over” — the Chicago Blackhawks. As I wrote in detail a couple days ago, just following trends blindly on Chicago is unwise if you are ignoring price. The market is in a frenzy to bet Chicago’s over, as well as a couple other teams overs, and what you may not realize is that you are beginning to make -EV bets by taking them at such crazy prices.
The opener for Chicago’s over tonight in a few places was as high as -260! This is where the spreadsheet can help.
When Chicago hits another first period over tonight, rather than thinking “AHHH I should followed that trend!”, consider the possibility that this was an event with an implied win percentage of about 70%, and that type of event is going to happen…about 70% of the time.
Yeah, the over is going to hit a lot. But again, look at the price you’re paying and what that implies, or put another way, how often you have to be right about that bet to profit? Something can happen a lot of the time, and still be a bad bet because of price.