Locky’s First Period Model, 2/25: Panthers-Avalanche Provides Interesting Angle

Good morning!

Yesterday a handful of small edges, some with great CLV, one without (ahem Chicago) and the model gets skunked. Today, six more games, and more edges to report.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.

Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche

9:05 p.m. ET

The largest, and most interesting, edge vs. openers is Avs-Panthers, because this is a situation where I have the largest game-total projection of the night, bet yet in the first-period market, a large edge on the under. How is that possible?

Because the distribution of goals in games between these teams has been heavy towards the 2nd and 3rd periods. The Panthers have only allowed 23 percent of their total goals in the 1st, and Colorado has only allowed 27 percent (league average about 29.3 percent).

Both teams have also been slow starters. Sometimes, the edges in our model are going to emerge because the period prices are just a derivative of the game total. In this case, that seems like a mistake.

As a huge fan of the movie "Anchorman," any reference to the word Panther immediately makes me think of the absurd cologne Paul Rudd tries on in the office. And whether it's the cologne or the first-period total probability, 60 percent of the time, it works every time.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Breakdown

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.