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Red Wings vs. Stars Odds & Picks: Keep an Eye on Dallas’ Injured Trio

Red Wings vs. Stars Odds & Picks: Keep an Eye on Dallas’ Injured Trio article feature image

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Rasmussen (left) looks to score on Anton Khudobin.

  • The Dallas Stars host the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday night after these teams met on Tuesday.
  • The Stars were very much average in Tuesday's game, so where does the betting value lie this time around?
  • Matt Russell breaks it down and shares his betting pick below.

Red Wings vs. Stars Odds

Red Wings Odds +175 
Stars Odds -205 
Over/Under 6.0 
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Wednesday night and via DraftKings.

We did it! We did it, everybody! Great job out there. 

We successfully bet on the Red Wings over the Stars on Tuesday night. I mean, we didn’t win the bet, but we bet the game correctly. Both things can be true in NHL betting.

Annoying, right?

Does that mean both will be the case again on Thursday night? Of course not. Maybe both statements will be true! Orrrrrrr, maybe neither will be! The best we can do is try.

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Detroit Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings came to Dallas after two losses in Chicago over the weekend. Apparently that was enough for hockey bettors to want nothing to do with them, and thus value was created. Detroit +185 was widely available and we gobbled up that price, or one similar to it. 

We knew that price was not correct given how the two teams had actually played over the previous weekend. It turned out to be not correct, as the Red Wings and Stars went to overtime in a game that was as evenly played as its 1-1 score would indicate. 

The Red Wings held the Stars to just five High-Danger Chances (HDC) at even strength, and were able to create seven of their own. The Expected Goal Share was nearly dead even at 50.5%-49.5% in favour of Detroit. Knowing this information and this information alone would require a considerably bigger bet than our standard fare.

Dallas Stars

The Stars scored early in overtime to get the win and save the day for the foolish individuals who were willing to pay -200 for the Stars without Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Roope Hintz. These three players are core components to the branding of the Stars as Western Conference heavyweights. Without them, their rating drops precipitously in my “Let’s Do That Hockey” model on THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast.

The Stars were very much average in the game against the Red Wings, and they were very much average in their first two games against the Predators. Things look a lot better because, in layman’s terms, the pucks went in the net more often than they should have in the season opener. 

Red Wings-Stars Pick

Naturally, with three players that are critical to the team playing at full value being game-time decisions, it’s critical that you know if the Stars’ trio will actually be in the lineup come Thursday night. They weren’t in the lineup on Tuesday, and the Wings were still widely available at near 2-1.

So why make a bet right now?

The easy answer is that you shouldn’t, unless you’re reading this 10 minutes before puck drop. If puck drop isn’t imminent then let’s keep an eye on the lineup and if the Stars’ stars are in, let’s see if the line moves up over +200 for the Wings. If any one of them are out, and like Tuesday, there’s no change to the line, we’ll fire away. 

Either way, there’s going to be more than enough value on the Red Wings to make this a successful bet when we have the benefit of hindsight. Let’s hope it’s a winner, too. 

Pick: Red Wings (+180 or better)

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