NHL Playoffs Game 6 Betting Odds, Preview: Will Capitals, Stars Advance?
James Guillory, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Alex Ovechkin
- We have two NHL Playoff games on Monday: Washington Capitals (+110) at Carolina Hurricanes (-120) and Nashville Predators (+120) at Dallas Stars (-130).
- Michael Leboff breaks down the odds and wonders if the market has overreacted in both games.
Good bets lose. Bad bets win.
On Sunday night, the San Jose Sharks staved off elimination with a 2-1 victory over the Golden Knights in double-overtime. That score does not even come close to telling the whole story.
Not only were the Sharks outshot, 58-29, and out-attempted, 111-63 at 5-on-5, they also allowed 4.11 expected goals while generating only 1.82.
This should have been a blowout, but it wasn’t, all thanks to one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL this season — the enigmatic Martin Jones.
After no-showing for the first four games of the series, Jones was dynamic in Games 5 and 6, allowing three goals on 90 shots (.967) and only one at 5-on-5. Jones has single-handedly earned San Jose a Game 7 at home. I don’t think anybody saw this coming, at least not in this fashion.
If you bet on Vegas on Sunday night, you have every right to feel cheated. You win that bet 99 times out of 100.
Good bets lose. Bad bets win.
Washington Capitals (+105) at Carolina Hurricanes (-115)
7 p.m. ET on NBCSN
The Hurricanes are facing elimination after getting drubbed in Washington, 6-0, in Game 5. It was a complete performance from the Capitals and one that is impacting the line for Game 6.
In Game 4, the Hurricanes were a -120 home favorite against the Capitals. Late in that game Washington lost one of its best players, T.J. Oshie, to a broken clavicle.
In theory, the Hurricanes should be bigger favorites in Game 6 than they were in Game 4 given that Oshie is not going to play. Yet, it’s Washington’s price that has shortened for Game 6 around the market, not Carolina’s.
Even though the Canes had their doors blown off in Game 5, they have been dictating play for much of the series and have owned 59.4% of the shot share and 59.3% of the xG share at 5-on-5 (adjusted for score).
Heatmap courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
The Hurricanes were one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the NHL in terms of expected goals and shot metrics, so it shouldn’t be surprising that they are driving play in this series.
I expect more of the same in Game 6 and frankly am baffled that this number is sitting in this range with Oshie out. I thought there was value on the Hurricanes at -120 in Game 4 and will be backing them again in Game 6.
Nashville Predators (+120) at Dallas Stars (-130)
8:30 p.m. ET on CNBC
The Predators need a win in Dallas tonight or they will end up being the third division champion eliminated from the postseason.
Coming into this series we knew that Dallas’ biggest strength was its defense and goaltending. Even though Nashville is generating more shot attempts, the Stars have done a good job limiting quality scoring chances, and Ben Bishop has been the better goaltender through the first five games of this set.
The Stars were in the -120 range for Games 3 and 4, so I’m not totally sure why the market has adjusted this much for Game 6. Sure, the Stars have played a great series but this was always going to be a grind for the Predators and they remain the more talented team.
Nashville will need to find a way to break through Dallas’ defense and contend with the Stars’ top line, but I’m willing to take a discounted price on the better team in Game 6.