Sharks vs. Blues Game 4 Betting Odds, Preview: Can Blues Put Controversy Behind Them?

Sharks vs. Blues Game 4 Betting Odds, Preview: Can Blues Put Controversy Behind Them? article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jordan Binnington

  • The St. Louis Blues are -140 favorites over the San Jose Sharks in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals.
  • Will Jordan Binnington raise his game and help the Blues even up the series?

San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues Game 4 Betting Odds

  • Sharks odds: +120
  • Blues odds: -140
  • Over/Under: 5.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBCSN

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets


The officials have become the story of the Western Conference Finals.

That will naturally happen when the four on-ice officials blow a call like they did in overtime of Game 3, but all the hoopla about the zebras is overshadowing something else that’s worth talking about — the goaltending.

Before this series started the general consensus was that if Martin Jones was able to keep pace with Jordan Binnington, the Sharks would be in great shape. Through three games Jones has done just that, but not because he’s played well, rather because he just hasn’t played worse than Binnington, who is in poor form.

The Blues’ rookie currently sports an .845 save percentage at 5-on-5 in the first three games of this series. We knew Binnington would find his way back to earth at some point, but this type of crash is not what was expected.

Meanwhile, the engima that is Martin Jones has played to an .855 save percentage at 5-on-5. That type of play would usually sink a team, but he’s actually been the better goalie this series.

The poor play in goal has led to sky-high shooting percentages from both teams. The Blues sporting a 14.5% shooting percentage at 5-on-5 while the Sharks are operating at 15.5%. Both offenses are over-performing thanks to poor goaltending, which means that if either Jones or Binnington can find his A-Game, his team will have a great chance of meeting the Bruins in the Stanley Cup Final.

Outside of the goaltending, the Blues have been the better team at 5-on-5 in terms of expected goals (54%) and high-danger scoring chances (54.2%).

Game 4 Betting Analysis

The odds for Game 4 are pretty close to where they closed for Game 3. At -140/+120 the market is implying the Blues have a 56.1% chance of winning on Friday night. That would make St. Louis a slight favorite on neutral ice (home-ice advantage is ~5% in the NHL) and I think that overrates the Blues, slightly.

Even with Jones in net, I think the Sharks are the better team in terms of overall talent and depth. I’m comfortable playing San Jose at this number but would try to get +120 or better.