Maple Leafs at Red Wings Betting Odds and Pick: Will Toronto Keep Rolling Under Sheldon Keefe?

Maple Leafs at Red Wings Betting Odds and Pick: Will Toronto Keep Rolling Under Sheldon Keefe? article feature image
Credit:

Joe Camporeale, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Sheldon Keefe

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings Odds

  • Maple Leafs odds: -210
  • Red Wings odds: +175
  • Over/Under: 6
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 2-0 under new head coach Sheldon Keefe and it seems like things are pointing in the right direction for the Buds after a sluggish start under Mike Babcock.

It is a laughably small sample size, but Toronto has a 62.2% expected goal share and a 69.8% high-danger chance share in the two games Keefe has manned the bench. In the prior 23 games, the Leafs controlled 47.9% of the expected goals and 47.5% of the high-danger chances.

Once again, it’s only been two games, but the early returns for Keefe’s Leafs look good. Toronto will be expected to improve to 3-0 under their new head coach on Wednesday as the Leafs are -210 road favorites in Detroit.

When firing on all cylinders, the Leafs are among the best teams in the entire NHL. They are every bit a Stanley Cup contender even after their stumbling start.

Detroit, on the other hand, is the worst team in the NHL. The Red Wings come into this game with the fewest points and worst goal differential in the circuit. They have lost four games in a row and one of their best players, Anthony Mantha, is out for two weeks.

There’s no real way to dress up the Red Wings to make them seem attractive to bettors. Detroit has the worst goal share (38.7%), sixth-worst xG share (46.6%) and seventh-worst high-danger chance share (47%) in the NHL (all stats 5-on-5 and adjusted for score + venue).

The Red Wings have very little scoring talent to speak of, which is why they create the third-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season.

The one glimmer of hope here is that Detroit does a decent job at protecting the house and limiting high-quality scoring chances against.

Heatmap via HockeyViz.com

Given the gulf in talent, Detroit’s only real path to success here is to turn this into a low-event game. That will level the playing field somewhat and at that point a good bounce or two could make Detroit a live underdog. It’s never fun to bet terrible teams, but the price is too good to pass up as Toronto’s price is probably a little inflated due to its good start under Keefe.

The listed odds imply that Toronto wins this game 65.1% of the time. That means, on neutral ice, the Maple Leafs would be around a -262 favorite over the Red Wings in this matchup. Does Toronto win this game more often than not? Certainly. Do the Leafs win it 65.1% of the time? I don’t think so.

We can probably safely assume that bettors won’t be lining up at the window to bet on the Wings in this game, so you may be better off waiting out the market to get a bigger price closer to puck drop.

That being said, I’d play Detroit +170 or better. Yikes.

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