Franklin: I’m Betting on Kentucky, But Don’t Feel Great About It

Last time we talked, I told you to take Kentucky to cover the 5.5 points against Wofford in the Round of 32. I pretty much guaranteed the Kentucky cover, when most experts were encouraging you to do the opposite and get behind the hot-shooting Terriers.

Kentucky then went on to cover the 5.5 points, proving my expert opinion to be correct. You’re welcome. (We are going to pretend like it was easy money and we didn’t need two Tyler Herro free throws with four seconds left to cover by a half-point. We also won’t mention that Wofford had the lead for 19 minutes in the game, while Kentucky was in front for only 16 minutes. The check cleared. Minor details like the score for 39 minutes of the game don’t matter.)

Now Kentucky is staring down a dangerous Houston team in the Sweet 16, and I am on the Cats to cover once again. This time, however, I do not love the pick. Matter of fact, I am worried about my beloved Wildcats.

Fellow Kentucky bettors should worry too. Here are five reasons why you should be cautious with that -3:

1. PJ Washington’s status remains uncertain.

First and foremost, we still don’t know if Washington will play, and if he does play, for how long. Washington had his cast removed earlier this week and he said he feels good, but neither he nor John Calipari would confirm he is ready to go, when asked several times during Kentucky’s media session on Thursday.

Calipari went as far to say he will be stunned if Washington plays more than 18 minutes, and that he won’t be surprised if Washington decides not to play at all.

The thought process around the Bluegrass is that Washington will give it a try, but everyone is guessing at this point because we won’t truly know until the ball is tipped late Friday night.

If the worst-case scenario occurs and Kentucky has to go without Washington, I question if Kentucky can win the game, not just cover the three points.

2. Kentucky’s offense did not look good against Wofford.

Operating under the assumption that Washington won’t be back to regular All-American form, I worry about UK’s offense. So much of what Kentucky has done runs through him, and in the one challenging game without him, against Wofford, things looked way out of sync on the offensive end.

Kentucky shot only 40.3% from the field in the game, down from 48% before Washington went down. Kentucky was 21.3% from outside, down from its 36% clip on the year.

The key to surviving the first two rounds without Washington was Reid Travis bullying his way through mismatches, but the competition takes a major step up in the second weekend of the tournament and Travis can’t be called on to carry the team for a third straight game.

3. Houston’s defense is for real.

Kelvin Sampson has one of the best defenses in all of college basketball, so Kentucky will have to fight for every basket, with or without Washington.

As I just mentioned, Kentucky’s half-court offense was horrible through much of the game against Wofford; against Houston, getting a good look will be even more difficult.

Some numbers that stand out: The Cougars give up only 20 made baskets per game, which ranks third nationally. Opponents shoot only 36% from the field against Houston, the lowest opponent field goal percentage of any team in college basketball.

4. Corey Davis scares me.

If you made me choose between the matchup of UK's Tyler Herro and Houston's Corey Davis at guard, the homer in me would probably take Herro. That being said, Davis is not someone you want your team to have to defend, especially the way he is playing right now.

In his first tournament game, Davis had 26 points, seven rebounds and six assists with no turnovers. He followed it up with another 21 points and six rebounds in the win over Ohio State. He hit a combined 10 three-pointers in the two games.

Of all the players who advanced to the Sweet 16, Davis ranks fourth in scoring at 23.5 points per game, behind Carsen Edwards (Purdue), Zion Williamson (Duke) and Brandon Clarke (Gonzaga). That’s pretty good company.

5. Houston’s athleticism beat LSU and LSU’s athleticism beat Kentucky.

I try not to buy into the transitive property of college basketball, but I would be lying if I said Houston’s win over LSU doesn’t add to my concern.

I was there when LSU beat Kentucky in Rupp Arena earlier this year, and LSU’s athleticism is the reason it was able to pull off the upset. The Tigers’ interior length and athleticism were too much for Reid Travis, who couldn’t match what LSU brought to the inside game.

Houston beat that same LSU team (one of only five teams to do so) by controlling the glass and playing great defense in the second half. That game, which took place back in December, will have no impact on what happens in Friday’s NCAA Tournament game, but it does prove that Houston has the horses to run with the cream of the crop of the SEC.

Now you’re probably wondering why I’m on Kentucky.

Here’s the quick version:

1. I am hoping Washington plays and plays well. If he is able to contribute on the boards and open things up for the offense, I like Kentucky a lot.

2. Kentucky is 6-1 in Sweet 16 games under John Calipari and 21-5 all-time. This is Houston’s first Sweet 16 game in 35 years.

3. If it is a tight game, I side with free throw shooting and Kentucky’s Tyler Herro has missed one free throw since December. Herro is 62-of-63 from the stripe in 2019. Meanwhile, Houston entered the tournament ranked 187th as a team.

4. UK players are trained for this. They’re battle-tested with close games and the big stage is nothing new to the Wildcats. You live on the big stage when you play at Kentucky, so the Sweet 16 is just another game on the schedule and confidence is riding high in the locker room.

5. Kentucky fans will make it a home game (especially if fans from the first game don’t stick around). Big Blue Nation always shows up at tournament time.

I believe Kentucky will cover, but I won’t be confident in the pick until I see Washington with a basketball in his hands Friday night.